Friday, January 30, 2009

Holding ES short into the next week

Gonna gap down huge on Monday according to Mr Flux.

sold DUG at 24.80

added DUG long @ 24.17

same stop


Long DUG 24.05

stop 23.9


shorted ES @ 837.5

stop 841


Thursday, January 29, 2009

Going after the big fish this time.

As some of you know, before the crash in Oct 2008, I was trading short term swings until I had to take a break due to the accident. I will not do it this time because I believe I entered the market at the apex of this cycle.

Today I added to the positions I opened yesterday and I intend to hold until SPX 600 minimum. I expect SKF to trade around $420 and most of the financials to disappear before we put a firm bottom. I will micromanage the positions on the way, such as, covering this, shorting that, other than this, there wouldn't be too much action on my side except a few day trades, perhaps.

You can see my holdings at

All trades are posted on this blog realtime before I update the table, usually every night.

As far as I know, Atilla shorted big time yesterday and the day before, probably including the stocks that I shorted since he recommended them. He has been increasingly busy in the last few months but I hope he will drop by from time to time.

Added QCOM short @ 35

Also planning to add to the other positions later today. I believe we put a massive top yesterday. Aside from major trend backtests, it appears to be lots of bullishness if yesterdays rebel attempt against Atilla is any indication LOL ! Trust me I have seen this many times, they mock him right at the top if he is short little early, in this case he was one day early.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Bill passes plus Fed releases some gas ...

I think everything will be fine from now on. Goldilocks could be back. We rallied almost 30 handles. More importantly I stayed missively short ES and SP with newly added bags... I just cant help!!!

Added SKF long @ 129.1

short VRTX @ 32.48

short QCOM @ 36.93

All these trades are triggered based on intermediate term setups. Therefore I expect them to work for a few weeks or fail immediately.

long QID @ 54.1

shorted MS @ 21.4

shorted BK @ 26.4

The path of the most predictable...

This came to my mind a few days ago, why the most predictable has been working the best since late November. I can only come up with one thing. Institutions are out of the market. I know GS and JPM didn't break $10 yet but when they do, all rules of the game will turn upside down completely. You buy low volume rallies, extreme bullish retail sentiment trade news with straight Aristo logic etc... Sounds like a biblical justice for suckers.

Lets gap up and sell off, rinse and repeat, make retail addict to the oscillator trading until the next day of unpredictable.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

long SKF at 153.4

The other half. You can see my holdings on xPositions.

Long SKF @154.6 50% position

--- Charts to be posted here ---

Trade summary

Due to my intesified work schedule, I will be posting less from now on. Below is a trade summary as future referance. SP position is the largest and intended for intermediate term trade:

Short SP@ 844
Short YM@ 8100 (average)
Short NQ@ 1182
Long SKF@ 159.5

Mental Stop @ 847 (Exit will be posted regardless)

Target for all is btw 550-630 on SPX

PS: Blog will still be as active as it was as Sol and other authors (there will be a new member this week) keep it updated often. I will also drop by if/when there is an impending major event.

xTrends forever !!!

Lets get over with it...

Without getting into details, there is a possibility , there are signs in place, that S&P may finally test sub-600 level to put a multiyear bottom in a few weeks. This will be the best stimulus package this country as well as any other nation on the earth can get.

Shorted SPH9 above 840

long SKF @ 159.5

Added YM short @ 8125

Sold ES @ 842

This leaves me with NQ and YM shorts

short YM @ 8080

sold BGU @ 29.1

Sold TF @ 452

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Long term Gold

I had posted this chart in September 2008 and told you Gold should bottom between 650-700

I guess it bottomed out right below 700 in November 08.


Friday, January 23, 2009

Thursday, January 22, 2009

What the following chart means?

Sol posted a very important chart that has implications for all equities and economy going forward.

Before I start, take a look at the following chart of TLT. (TLT is an ETF tracking 20yr treasury bonds).

You can see the breakaway gap from the other corner of your room can't you? That breakaway gap on TLT corresponds to the massive breakdown on $TNX. For those who dont know how these instruments move, they usually move in the opposite directions. $TNX is 10 year bond yield, TLT is a bond ETF. Although TLT is more related to the longer term maturity debt (20 year), it does move in the opposite direction of $TNX most of the time.

Technically what the above chart simply implies that the bonds will soon rise as they test a longterm channel breakout that accompanied with a longterm breakdown on $TNX. This is a direct indication of deflation and implies that the current situation is nothing like you or your grandpa has seen before (Because of the importance of the breakouts/breakdowns on very long term scales). Such situation seen in Japan in 90s. If you want to know what happened to them, do a little research.

One of the reasons I have been shifting away from my bullish stand for a bear market rally was this.

More than words....

Are you ready?

Markets may be going into a selling climax

Noticed the first signs yesterday before I put the hedges on. Unfortunately I observed more of the same today that forced me to put second hedge although intraday timing was little off again.

Now you have to listen carefully. The short covering rallies which are quite deceptive can be a cause-building because unfortunately market can not move away from what I consider a very important pivot around 800. I did not want to carry big contracts with such a market that closes near this important level consecutively. So I am only left with ES and ETF longs that are fully hedged via YMH9 and I am waiting for the market to tell me what to do next. I do not have a very clear read on the market at the moment. I am waiting for the certain occurrences to take place in order to move ahead decisively.

I will post another update after the close as we are at an important juncture.

shorted YM @ 8040 against ES longs

shorted Esh9 @818

stop 824

target soon to be refined

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Have we put the bottom?

Thanks for your votes...

Past poll result is:

Key reversal day on volume

We got the key reversal day on volume, I closed YM hedge staying net long ES and other given ETFs. Expecting a significant gap up tomorrow.

shorted YM @7985 against ES

I closed SP around 815 in the morning, hedging ES with YM for the day.

sold UYG @ 3.01

will reenter later today

Today will be a reversal day

Based on yesterday's EOD, today will be a key reversal day. What this means is, after a morning spike which we are seeing currently, there will be lower prices. This could be 780 or 790 or higher on ES but this level will produce a severe reversal that will push the indices above today's opening prices by the close. Before the noon, I will be closing SP big contract positions that I opened below 820 last week. I will reenter later today.

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Why sell off can not last

and the low will produce new swing highs on many indices. Internal charachteristic is not showing similar signs as the previous sell offs. VIX is broken.

another try at 2.92

There should be a 10-15% rally today

tried another long UYG @ 3

stop @ 2.94

long UYG @ 3.07

stop at 3.05

Interesting day

Dow seems to be breaking down what appears like a ascending triangle formation. It is a common occurrence among these type of formations that the direction of the first breakout is usually in the opposite side of the impending trend. However, the chart, as it is now, do not give me any signal to take long positions yet, as I trade what I see, not what I predict.

Friday, January 16, 2009

Holding BGU for $37+ early next week

Opened the position for a day trade however the close was meaningful in terms of ST price structure. The move didn't even started yet but it will with a nice gap up on Tuesday.

Leadership is already set up in bullish configuration.

long BGU @ 29.90

for a day trade

Staying long TF, SP and ES for the swing trade.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

New Poll

Appreciate your votes.

VIX topped out

I think next swing low on VIX will be around 35 in a few weeks.

I been accumulating SPH9 for a swing trade below 820 but I do not want this trade to be recorded. I expect S&P to test 970 near the end of the earning season (probably third week of Feb opex)

Went long TF below 447

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Are we now going below 600 on SPX?

UK is imploding folks. FTSE started cratering like a hot stone due to the situation I had mentioned here on xTrends a while ago. Their banking and real estate markets are where we were in late 2007 and as I said this would be the catalyst for the impending terminal sell off here in US markets.
As the following trends indicate, major breakdowns were visible on most of the major indices as well as the Dow Industrial which I had repeatedly showed here. See the following index charts and a few other major components.....

Regarding the short term, the market naturally gaped down after FTSE and other European markets sold off and I am still holding a small short term position from 871, which I may close tomorrow morning based on the conditions.

IF I see this market going for my ultimate target somewhere below 600 on SPX this month, I will fix my mistake quickly and reenter intermediate term short positions in size. However I still think it is unlikely to happen during the earning season.

Wrong is wrong.

My short term timing was wrong today. Overnight futures were severely pressured by the European markets which in turn caused a large gap down below key technical levels. However I am waiting for the close to decide about my next move.
As you may remember, Atilla mentioned about certain banking and real estate problems in UK a while ago. Unfortunately my short term call coincided with a breakdown on FTSE.
In short, I am waiting for the close and post an update accordingly.

Tuesday, January 13, 2009

High probability of a giant gap up tomorrow

It's very interesting that SPX closed it's session near 870 area. If the market gaps up tomorrow, it could be unique day.

Monday, January 12, 2009

closed short ETFs


TZA closed @ 55.05 for breakeven
TWM closed @ 70 : $25.0073 dividend on Dec 22, 2008, took 17% loss
MZZ closed @ 62.5: $23.84952 dividend on Dec 22, 2008, took 17.7% loss

long ES at 871

for a ST trade

Covered all ES positions at 872

for 18 points profit. I will reshort after Opex.

I believe I will be able to get better entry price to short. (higher than 890)

Sunday, January 11, 2009

Did you raise the sperm count?

Following are the updated versions of these charts.
Staying short from 890 average (864,890,917) for the projected low below 600.

SPX Weekly.

Hi guys,
I know that I didn't post much, the reason for that was actually the market itself. It had entered into a whipsawing area and it was chopping for couple days. Absolutely there was no trends and not tradeable for me. But It has also come to my attention that some of the major sectors have weakened like XLF and SMH during the last day the previous week ( They broke their short-term trend intraday. Monday these trends might get tested and look strong in the first couple hours. But I don't think that will change anything what it is going to be. I also expect a little gap up tomorrow (2-3 points) and a limited upside rally to 890. For the rest of the week you can see my prediction on both the SPX chart and the ESH9 futures charts. There is a heavy selling waiting for us, as a reminder this week is also the expiration week for options, there could be a good chance of making some money. When the market reaches that area (847-852), that mightalso be pivotalarea for a strong upside rally.

Friday, January 9, 2009

More downside likely in the ST

JB3 here,

More comment cleaning.

Sorry - haven't been around much. Have been quite occupied elsewhere this week. I won't be around much on Fridays for the forseeable future.

I was going to cover my additional short scalp nibble a moment ago but the patterns of the 5min chart tells me there's more downside, at least in the ST. That is interesting to me, because we're close to some fairly decent trendline support according to my charts - which could indicate that support is about to be broken.

We'll see, I guess.

Still short overall, but not as exposed as I will be once some support levels down a bit lower get taken out.

Hope you're all having fun.


Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Nice fall today

JB3 here.

Mainly a comment cleaner.

I'm looking forward to seeing what picture the tape paints tomorrow.

Hope you're all having fun. Cheers.

Sunday, January 4, 2009

Time to raise the sperm count on the deal...

Looks like some folks have mixed emotions these days... indulding in fantasies like Atilla Demiray going off a cliff, in his new Maserati. Well, vacation is over.