Monday, November 17, 2008

The Silence of Camels

Back in August 2008, I had posted inflation adjusted charts, and predicted a sell off in commodities and commodity stocks before they got cut in half or more.

Here is a follow up.



184 comments by xTrenders :

reddweb said...

first?

Jooon_Yer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Aneo Designs said...

Great charts!

For commodities to rebound USD weakness will be needed?

So, USD weakness will be good for stocks too?

What amount of gap up will negate the "test of lows" scenario?

aneo

Beyond said...

Damn Asia's markets look like their about to go red, hope Europe does better. The gap up scenario doesn't look that great right now. Hope I'm wrong.

Salvador said...

how about now ? up 0,8% is this an enought of a gap up ? up so... let's wait till markets open...

im going to class

c ya

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Gap down or flat open should trigger a morning rally

A slight gap up should be sold followed by a rally

Both cases are bearish for the later part.

If we gap up good above a certain level, that will reset the case and produce a sustainable rally that may lead to further up days this week.

WagTheDog said...

These are powerful charts and correlations. Thank you Atilla.

The charts graphically support the probability of a deepening economic slowdown in the US and globally.

If they hold true, then we return to increasing crude oil prices, increasing commodity prices, and continued downward pressure on equities.

Atilla, it's a pleasure to see how a master trader analyzes the correlation between commodities, currency, and equities. Thank you.

Beyond said...

Thanks Atilla, for the over all view of the day. What point would be needed for the gap up and not sell off scenario to occur in your opinion? Or what point do you think it would turn down?

Beyond said...

Just for fun here is a post from ChaunceyHerbie that he posted on Tim's site about the max pain points:

chaunceyherbie said:

Max Pain:
DIA=90
SPY=97
QQQQ=32
SMH=20
XLF=15
IWM=60
GLD=76
AAPL=100
GS=90

Jooon_Yer said...

sub - ignore

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Beyond said...

Thanks Atilla, for the over all view of the day. What point would be needed for the gap up and not sell off scenario to occur in your opinion? Or what point do you think it would turn down?

Monday, November 17, 2008 2:29:00 AM EST

--------------

I hope you understand that if I advertise that number here, it may become worthless. If you noticed, this happened several times last week, I missed entries and exits by a few points. Something I have noticed lately.

BUT I will absolutely post my trade real time if I make any.

Beyond said...

Atilla,

Good piont, better not to say. Anyway, keep up the great work Atilla, I really look up to you your skill and what I know of your person. Thanks for the reply.

ARAK said...

For those of you that got in at around 880 and would like to exit and not wait for the gap up or rally(which may or may not happen, so don't take my word for it) the best chance might be around 5 to 15 minutes before the german/swiss markets open. In the last two weeks, more than 3/4th of the time, there is a ramp up that happens right around that time (around 3 to 3:30am EST)before it comes down again

elmo said...

thanks for the great post.

I am looking for the highs 600's on the SP next week. Hopefully we rally first, tho.

Does anyone think the dollar will collapse? Down 50-90%

What are everyones thoughts?

Greenie said...

Oh scheiße, I sold everything at the time German markets opened, but the futures keep going up. How can I get them back Arak?

Just kidding.

:)

Keyword: fiesses - Roman for feces=Scheiße.

Salvador said...

ARAK said...

For those of you that got in at around 880 and would like to exit and not wait for the gap up or rally(which may or may not happen, so don't take my word for it) the best chance might be around 5 to 15 minutes before the german/swiss markets open. In the last two weeks, more than 3/4th of the time, there is a ramp up that happens right around that time (around 3 to 3:30am EST)before it comes down again

-------------------------

nice call it went up to 874...

Salvador said...

elmo said...

thanks for the great post.

I am looking for the highs 600's on the SP next week. Hopefully we rally first, tho.

Does anyone think the dollar will collapse? Down 50-90%

What are everyones thoughts?

-------------------------

i do...

Joul said...

atilla m. demiray said...
Beyond said...

Thanks Atilla, for the over all view of the day. What point would be needed for the gap up and not sell off scenario to occur in your opinion? Or what point do you think it would turn down?

Monday, November 17, 2008 2:29:00 AM EST

--------------

I hope you understand that if I advertise that number here, it may become worthless. If you noticed, this happened several times last week, I missed entries and exits by a few points. Something I have noticed lately.

BUT I will absolutely post my trade real time if I make any.

Monday, November 17, 2008 2:33:00 AM EST

-----------------------------------

Good one,Atilla.

johnboy - Moderator said...

Excellent charts, Atilla.

Many thanks indeed.

Eurobear said...

Europe dragging Futes lower.....

Greenie said...

europe has no future.

Eurobear said...

Greenie,
Are you talking about the Region or just my trading account. :O)

Salvador said...

got out at the target arek provided fortunately...3 points of profit not bad....

wht do you guys think will happen today ? up ? down ?

do you see a new test to the lows ?

best, sal

johnboy - Moderator said...

Sal,

I'm not sure. I'm not convinced that we're gonna fall below the range yet.

My indicators lean in favour of a bear shakeout in the leadup to opex.

But my bearish alternate view is that if we impulsively slide from here then we've already begun the next gut-wrencher down, which will eventually bring about the IT bottom (for the time being)

Just my 0.02

Beyond said...

I think we are headed down, the 15-minute chart doesn't look very promising for any sustainable rally. So I'm going to use any rally we get to get out of my Russell's play today. It performed horribley on Friday and I didn't get much of a chance to get out like everyone else did with their S&P plays.

Hugo said...

yeah you're right...i'll stay out since i feel we're in a no man's land where anything can happen in a very short time...

i'll either wait for higher prices and short, or for lower ones and go long...

Salvador said...

sorry the hugo guy was me...

Eurobear said...

Sentiment here must echo general retail market. I'm pretty worn out, plenty of others must be worse. The long and hold crowd in my office are all off 40% plus on their acounts. I don't hear anyone saying stocks are a bargain a this level. The continuous down in the last 2 weeks has worn me out. It may not be capitualtion but we have some degree of exhaustion.

Ceri word : unter.....German word for under...not a good omen

buylo said...

test

ROLLER said...

the last thing you want is the USD collapsing ... if it happens,the next thing you will see is DOW 2,000.

It is absolutelty critical that the USD remain relatively strong. Otherwise the whole system is going to fall and there will be no market to trade.

Chuk said...

"I hope you understand that if I advertise that number here, it may become worthless. If you noticed, this happened several times last week, I missed entries and exits by a few points. "

Are you really implying that your blog has some influence over the market?

Joul said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Joul said...

chuk said...
"I hope you understand that if I advertise that number here, it may become worthless. If you noticed, this happened several times last week, I missed entries and exits by a few points. "

Are you really implying that your blog has some influence over the market?

Monday, November 17, 2008 7:17:00 AM EST
---------------------------------

The value of your question shares similarity with the value of LEH

katzo7 said...

Good one Joul.

valeriobrl said...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/31205984@N04/3038100764/sizes/o/

katzo7 said...

Free fall on BIDU.

PCap said...

Beyond said...

Just for fun here is a post from ChaunceyHerbie that he posted on Tim's site about the max pain points:

chaunceyherbie said:

Max Pain:
DIA=90
SPY=97
QQQQ=32
SMH=20
XLF=15
IWM=60
GLD=76
AAPL=100
GS=90

----------------------------------

I found yet another site to compute Max Pain, in case you want to update your list after each day.

http://www.optionpain.com/MaxPain/Max-Pain.php

*********************************

Greenie, I like how you use the ß in scheiße like an old school German!

********************************

valeriobrl said...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/31205984@N04/3038100764/sizes/o/

-----------------------------

What are you saying with that chart?

Beyond said...

Thanks pcap

Salvador said...

do you guys care to explain me what Max Pain is please ?

thanks

Beyond said...

Salvador,

Basically it's the setup where the most options will expire at a worthless value

Salvador said...

thanks

ROLLER said...

are there any studies showing any statistical proof that max pain is a valid trading signal?

I haven't found one ...

salvador ... my understanding of max pain is that at those posted prices, if we close there on option expiry (or close to it) it will cause the most pain for bulls AND bears

valeriobrl said...

pcap said:
What are you saying with that chart?

Monday, November 17, 2008 8:48:00 AM EST

bearish view for today

Lawrence Chiu said...

There have been studies done on Max Pain.

Link to research paper at my blog.

http://lcmarket.blogspot.com/2008/08/max-pain-calculators.html

PCap said...

"Wall Street axiom that says “90% of all the options that are bought and held to expiration will expire worthless”. This means that 90% of the time the people who ‘write’ the option and collect the premium, never get their stock ‘called’ from them or get stock ‘put’ to them. Thus the term MAX PAIN is the strike price where most options will expire worthless."

http://appleoption.com/2008/08/12/max-pain-option-expiration/

valeriobrl said...

Double Top Pattern doesn't look bullish....

valeriobrl said...

But I could be wrong

PCap said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anthony said...

DMA doesnt agree with you about the dollar moving higher.. Today maybe, by next week UUP the dollar will be lower.. Bank on it

ROLLER said...

we'll test the overnight highs and might fail there, if not, we have a good chance of invalidating friday aft move.

Beyond said...

I think he is saying that we have a double top and the downtrend line from above is hitting the prices from Friday so today would continue the dowards momentum

Kristjan the bretty boy said...

looks like down we go.
i really hope not
Roller u like my new look:)???

dieterhund said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
coption said...

PCap said...

"Wall Street axiom that says “90% of all the options that are bought and held to expiration will expire worthless”. This means that 90% of the time the people who ‘write’ the option and collect the premium, never get their stock ‘called’ from them or get stock ‘put’ to them. Thus the term MAX PAIN is the strike price where most options will expire worthless."

http://appleoption.com/2008/08/12/max-pain-option-expiration/

----------------------------
i would say option buyers/gamblers in oe week maybe only right 10%, but the return can be 10 times... it's still not far from a fair game...

also, about maxpain, you have to pay attention to a few things:
1) the total value of the stock option is sizeable;
2) the differential on nearby strike and maxpain strike are sizable;
3) the current option volume, after one or two shaking day, maxpain changes dramatically...

i do see some power on maxpain rule in the past months. however, interesting enough, this months maxpain is not really that far away (especially individual stocks only 1-2 strikes below)...

Susannah said...

anthony, but you think the dollar will move up one more time after this round of falling, right? Keep us updated if possible on that trade. I'd really appreciate it.

Tony said...

Atilla,

one request to you. Whenever you post a trade, can you post as a new title rather than posting in the comment section? it would be easier to follow. thanks very much.

Shawn said...

Atilla M. Demiray said...
Gap down or flat open should trigger a morning rally

A slight gap up should be sold followed by a rally

Both cases are bearish for the later part.

=========================

Atilla, I understand that you would not post frequently. We would appreciate if you can post your IT and ST directions and thoughts.

So with this latest post, are you saying we would not see SPX 1050 in this week?! We will break new lows? Thanks

Mr. L said...

man this sucks

Sqroot said...

http://www.websitetoolbox.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=3111304

Mr. L said...

subscribing

katzo7 said...

mr. l,
just hang in there.

txtornado42 said...

thrust pause pivot

PCap said...

Around 855 would be the 61.8% retrace of the move up.

Beyond said...

Yeah, if 855 holds for the day, we got the higher low in place. Then I can have a another sleepless night tomorrow hoping I get confirmation.

txtornado42 said...

thru 882 giddy up

Mr. L said...

they say the human brain can make a new habit in 2 weeks, i think everyone has been fooled to turn bearish here, its 2 weeks tomorrow since the drop after obama got elected

Beyond said...

Russells seems stronger today after the larger drop yesterday

Will Rane said...

YM and ES needs to get above premarket highs by 10 am to nullify the Friday late selling.

Eurobear said...

SPY's up and SSO down.....even the trackers are getting messed up.


veri word : greher , the colour mine will be at the end of the week,

PCap said...

Will Rane said...

YM and ES needs to get above premarket highs by 10 am to nullify the Friday late selling.

------------------------------

Why do you say that?

It ain't going to happen in the next 2 minutes

Beyond said...

Premarket highs were around 871 or something for ES.

Joul said...

ok brace.

Will Rane said...

pcap said...
Will Rane said...

YM and ES needs to get above premarket highs by 10 am to nullify the Friday late selling.

------------------------------

Why do you say that?

It ain't going to happen in the next 2 minutes
------------------------------
Yes, didn't happen. It would have got over some resistance before candle close. Now some downtrend continuation patterns are in play.

Word verfication: rhalign

hint for realign your thoughts.

ROLLER said...

quick test of the pre-market lows and then we'll try the highs

Rhett said...

people are buying semiconductors (SHM)

are we saved?
-Rhett

Shawn said...

I still think this morning lows can hold.

If market breaks below this morning lows by a substantial amount, I am going to cut loss.

katzo7 said...

We are in no man's land.

Joe said...

845-8 better hold. else i think the toilet flush will be opened.

Radium said...

Not my style but scalping is the only way to go in my opinion in conditions like this. Good luck everyone...this is crazy shit indeed.

Dont know how many cliffs i can fall off of anymore

840s have to hold

Rhett said...

i think the flush (of weak hands) is in, now we go up.

GWBush said...

I see after you guys following Atilla for 2 months and still learn nothing from the master trader.........so sad

BlueEasySleep said...

Is atilla claiming that him posting here can affect the movement of the market?

Radium said...

BlueEasySleep said...

Is atilla claiming that him posting here can affect the movement of the market?

____________________________________

NO! He never said that. Its distracting to trading answering all of our questions.

BlueEasySleep said...

"I hope you understand that if I advertise that number here, it may become worthless."


Isn't that what he's saying here?

Q said...

Anybody sees a double top on SPX?

drawdown said...

Hello.

I've been in a "coma" for a few weeks.

What's the consensus on the SPX? Has the ST expectation of an up move towards 1050 been ruled out yet or is that still in play?

One other thing, is Atilla still working on a new site?

Thanks.

Chuk said...

"NO! He never said that. Its distracting to trading answering all of our questions."

Yes he did:

"I hope you understand that if I advertise that number here, it may become worthless. If you noticed, this happened several times last week, I missed entries and exits by a few points. Something I have noticed lately. "

LearningWizard said...

You chose a good time to go into coma. :P

I don't think he still sees 1050 target before OPEX. And he's working on his new site.

coption said...

BlueEasySleep, I don't see any reason you should hang around here at all. Atilla should do whatever he feels comfortable.

Beyond said...

Intraday downtrend line on the 1-minute hit again on the indexes.

contrarianbear said...

Goooooooooood Morning!

ROLLER said...

look at that, NQ futures are positiv

katzo7 said...

FIlling the gap and then down.

txtornado42 said...

875 and we see 960

LiggerPig said...

early sentiment has reversed, they just wanted the stops below 850?

Steve said...

contrarianbear,

Any trouble with Flickr?

Sam said...

Attention to newbies, we may not see 960 for months or years based on where we are headed this week.

Even Atilla admitted it this weekend without giving specific numbers.

Be careful.

If we break 850, 818 will not hold. Option expiration delta neutral hedge will get skewed and cause an outright crash to low 700s. There are large puts sold at 800. If those puts are called back, SPX will crash 100 points.

I am sure Atilla is well aware of this, probably why he is in panic being long and trying to get out.

Eurobear said...

I have fallen out of love with Lady SPX, she was a great index. Pretty reliable but now she's went all schizo. You don't know how she will wake up in the morning, she's expensive, making demands on me to look after he all day and to be honest the whole thing is becoming a drag. I believe I may need to seek solice in an empty bed.

contrarianbear said...

I am very disappointed at you guys.
After two and half a day, you guys still can't figure out the market?
I gave you so many hints of technical indications on Friday night. Anybody do the homework? or just want to be a copy cat.

Does Atilla get it?
no words of cut loss short and switch to the other side?

It's DOWN ALL WEEK!
You hear it first here.

BlueEasySleep said...

I hear lady VIX is wild in bed.

swingjim said...

sam, panic?
I don't know but Attilla is the least panicked trader I've ever seen. Willing to take significant pain to let his plays work out. The last couple don't seem to have worked out so well, but PANICKED...dude we must be watching different screens.

coption said...

this place is a troller controlled station now... lol

contrarianbear said...

Steve,

havn't try Flickr yet. got busy with family over the weekend. thank you very much.

it's not a good pratice to post during the market hour.

Livemore won't let the chalk boys talk in the trading hours.

Steve, if you're long, sell at a bounce(don't have too much hope though). Then initiate a short trade to make it back. I will see you tonight.

swingjim said...

Coption, +1

Joe said...

time for a turn after new lows?

katzo7 said...

contrarianbear said,
I am very disappointed at you guys.
After two and half a day, you guys still can't figure out the market?
I gave you so many hints of technical indications on Friday night. Anybody do the homework? or just want to be a copy cat.

Does Atilla get it?
no words of cut loss short and switch to the other side?

It's DOWN ALL WEEK!
You hear it first here.
**********************************
While I agree with you and am short, please watch the condesenting tone towards members of this blog. No need for it, state your research and that is that.

drawdown said...

"You chose a good time to go into coma. :P

I don't think he still sees 1050 target before OPEX. And he's working on his new site."


Thanks Wizard.

I'm bringing myself up to date on where I left off with some longs in the 925 area. Oh boy!

What the heck happened thurs. & fri.? (don't answer that).

Almost similar but with a stronger naz, today looks like underwater beachball action redo so far but with a stronger naz.

We gapped down which portends a rally at some point per Atilla though I see he mentioned (following Fridays selloff action) we needed to gap up convincingly.

Definitely looking forward to his next post or trade.

Steve said...

contrarianbear,

I am flat...I sold my long position when the market reversed last Friday. I feel bad for those who didn't.

ROLLER said...

is it just me or is the bottom about to fall out of this market?

D.Vader.618 said...

Contrabear,
any downside targets for the week??? Thanks

Joe said...

gap fill?

The bears came out in full force with 600, 700 targets and market turned?

Trading Signs said...

with 850 level we took out lot of people with stop-loss. We should head towards green now.

Watch for higher vol now.

Sqroot said...

RUT is trying to turn positive; MACD curling up; %Rs up and moving.

coption said...

trollers never change. the mother of all indicators!!

Placebo said...

Close, very close to a low. It's looking strong But I think we need at least one more scare, before we see serious upside. So I say back down again

observer said...

long train is leaving the station..don't expect it to come back today.
cheers

Perry said...

Ha, mark Cuban may think day trading is for suckers, but I think insider trading is for suckers...

c.m. said...

contrarianbear,
I'll say open yourself a blog and start posting there.

nacho said...

Bring on the dragon. This thing could explode to the upside. Has the potential to produce a monster up day... waiting

in the mountains said...

what do you guys use to look at volume? I show no volume on SPX, but I can see volume on SPY and ES. Do you look at both of these to get a reading on volume? Are there others?

Thanks!

PCap said...

Blogger Perry said...

Ha, mark Cuban may think day trading is for suckers, but I think insider trading is for suckers...

-------------------------------

Insider trading is not for suckers... you make a few brazillion dollars and then they fine you like $12 for being a bad boy, maybe 6 months in a low security jail (with conjugal visits!)

coption said...

no volume, no big move, it's a time-decay game so far...

Atilla M. Demiray said...

There should be new intraday highs for ES (ABOVE 874) right ahead us


PS: Ignore the trolls please

Trading Signs said...

in the mountains said...

what do you guys use to look at volume? I show no volume on SPX, but I can see volume on SPY and ES. Do you look at both of these to get a reading on volume? Are there others?

Thanks!
=====================================

Look at the 5 min chart for today and you will see the volume.

in the mountains said...

Trading Signs said...

in the mountains said...

what do you guys use to look at volume? I show no volume on SPX, but I can see volume on SPY and ES. Do you look at both of these to get a reading on volume? Are there others?

Thanks!
=====================================

Look at the 5 min chart for today and you will see the volume.
=========================
yes, I can see volume on SPY and ES, but none on SPX. My question was are you looking at volume on both of those? Or does your charting software display volume with SPX?

Thanks.

Placebo said...

Are they going to hold us in a chop zone until late in the day? Call me nuts but I'am begining to think so.

sonny said...

Morning Atilla!

I hope that you're having a good one.

ROLLER said...

right on c.m. ... trolls should have their own blog ... buncha shit disturbers!

Perry said...

Pcap,

How's this for a risk reward ratio:

750 k gain/few billion net worth

and 22 months in jail, ask Martha about it.

Besides, stealing when your rich not only makes you a sucker, it makes you immoral.

Aneo Designs said...

Contrabear

This is options week. We will have downs as well us ups. How do you say it is all down?

aneo

PCap said...

in the mountains said...

what do you guys use to look at volume? I show no volume on SPX, but I can see volume on SPY and ES. Do you look at both of these to get a reading on volume? Are there others?

Thanks!

---------------


NYSE total volume is VOLU [index] on the Bloomberg, NYVL I think on stockcharts.com

PCap said...

Perry said...

Pcap,

How's this for a risk reward ratio:

750 k gain/few billion net worth

and 22 months in jail, ask Martha about it.

Besides, stealing when your rich not only makes you a sucker, it makes you immoral.

----------------------------

She did not go to jail for insider trading, she went to jail for perjury ("Stewart was found guilty in March 2004 of conspiracy, obstruction of an agency proceeding, and making false statements to federal investigators and sentenced in July 2004 to serve a five month term in a federal correctional facility and a two year period of supervised release (to include five months of home confinement). [8]" From wiki).

She was not found guilty of insider trading

Beyond said...

Thanks for the update Atilla. Man I love when they argue on CNBC and start calling each other names. It's so much fun to watch the mediator try to stop the fighting.

tradingod said...

Atilla,

Perry said...

Pcap,

Just for the record, i didn't say she was convicted of insider trading, she was a sucker none the less though.

tradingod said...

Atilla M. Demiray said...
There should be new intraday highs for ES (ABOVE 874) right ahead us


PS: Ignore the trolls please

Monday, November 17, 2008 11:18:00 AM EST
--------

thanks for the update.
will wait for ES 874.
does that mean above 874, we are fine toward your upside target of 1050?

appreciate you work.

Placebo said...

Bought SSO just looking for a scalp

coption said...

hallelujah

Sahmtrader - Moderator said...

I'm liking how ES is getting stronger but without the 15 minute technicals going fast to oversold conditions. Means more room for upside.

in the mountains said...

PCap said...

in the mountains said...

what do you guys use to look at volume? I show no volume on SPX, but I can see volume on SPY and ES. Do you look at both of these to get a reading on volume? Are there others?

Thanks!

---------------


NYSE total volume is VOLU [index] on the Bloomberg, NYVL I think on stockcharts.com
---------------------

thanks, pcap.

I should have mentioned I'm using Prophet charts on TOS. VOLU doesn't seem to work there.

Placebo said...

Placebo said...

Bought SSO just looking for a scalp

--------------------
If we can take out 880 I'll be overjoyed. I'am not sold on that bottom.

D.Vader.618 said...

At least 29.33 on the QQQQ= Fib. Target

bill108 said...

Atilla

Right on with your ES call

Are we basing in the mid 800's??

Sqroot said...

GREEN on RUT... toldja...
May have to base here

dhw said...

Atilla I think you should disable comments during market hours altogether . Reading the comments is tempting you to post.

txtornado42 said...

875 is a rule of 4 breakout and should see 950 quickly...Atilla, don't understand the etiquette of the room. Don't know if you consider me a troll or not(not promoting anything just a trader for 20yrs. My style may be dif but just giving my view. Let me know and I will never post again.

Placebo said...

Alright I think we will take out 880. Next is 890 no surprise there but above 890 my scale will probably transform itself into a swing trade.

TraderTamas said...

dhw said...
Atilla I think you should disable comments during market hours altogether . Reading the comments is tempting you to post.

----------------

He's posting his thoughts. What got him into trouble was answering questions.

Posting his thoughts is ok.

PCap said...

in the mountains said...

thanks, pcap.

I should have mentioned I'm using Prophet charts on TOS. VOLU doesn't seem to work there.

-------------------------------

I'm new to TOS, but in the charts/prophet section, use $TVOL should do the trick

D.Vader.618 said...

We are all in agreement. Atilla just post your thoughts.
Don't answer questions. It's not necessary. Just focus on the market and your charts. Thanks.

txtornado42 said...

882 is the master square..should be a little resis

PCap said...

txtornado42, do you have your own blog, I'd like to follow your Gann stuff.

LearningWizard said...

What's a master square

Anthony said...

AS seen by DMA usd is collapsing.. Stress fress life, prints $$$ bills.. Retired by 35, no sitting infront of computer all day

Wiseowl from Texas said...

It seems that volume on the downside had dried up and a little bit of up volume was driving up the price...

Good call Attila...

drawdown said...

"There should be new intraday highs for ES (ABOVE 874) right ahead us"

Amazing.

txtornado42 said...

no blog

in the mountains said...

PCap said...

in the mountains said...

thanks, pcap.

I should have mentioned I'm using Prophet charts on TOS. VOLU doesn't seem to work there.

-------------------------------

I'm new to TOS, but in the charts/prophet section, use $TVOL should do the trick
----------------

Thanks! that does it.

txtornado42 said...

what looks interesting is that uup will bust its 20ma at 26.5ish could it signal a multi day rally pahse?

peakskier said...

I feel we are putting in a major low here. Volume drying up, Europe and the rest of the world not trading near these lows, bullish divergences on breadth, price ect. I not saying we bottomed the bear here but I think we could chop higher for longer and farther then most expect. I do think mrs market will do her best to shake both sides out.

ROLLER said...

Martha Stewart never made over $750K insider trading, her net profit was s/thing like $60-$70K

Perry said...

ROLLER said...

Martha Stewart never made over $750K insider trading, her net profit was s/thing like $60-$70K.
---------------------------------
Cuban is alleged to have avoided losing money (750k) with knowledge of an upcoming dilution in mama.com

Homer said...

Guys,

What is the symbol of US dollar Index in TOS/Prophet? Thanks!

waiting2pounce said...

I'm feeling kinda dense here; does everybody but me understand the meaning and significance of "the silence of camels?"

PCP said...

The prosecutions for insider trading are just to appease the masses, a token gesture to show the ignorants that the government is doing something.

There are far more criminal activities going on in the markets and financial system as a whole. Since most people don't understand them, there is no outrage and thus no prosecutions. The government only upholds the laws it is forced to uphold. Since it is government of the people, it should be about as lazy/corrupt as the people.

Lana said...

I'm seeing a hs inverted on 30-15 min, neckline 905ish.

Lana said...

Anthony,

Been watching the $ and after one try I picked up gld which daily says buy. Thanks for your eyes on the $ for us.

Placebo said...

Atilla sold his longs

Joe said...

Time for a pullback?

Tesla said...

Anthony, get your blog up yet?

Aum Namah Shivaya said...

Looks like Dollar is at tipping point . It aint going stronger from here...may be maximum 3-4 percent move IMO.

I think dollar is stretched too much on the upside both fundamentally and technically.

Thats my opinion.

Thanks

Word verification : pronato

Abe said...

Placebo said...

Atilla sold his longs
-------------------------

Where do you see that???

Placebo said...

Abe said...

Placebo said...

Atilla sold his longs
-------------------------

Where do you see that???

Monday, November 17, 2008 12:37:00 PM ES

-------------------

On the main page

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/

tradingod said...

Atilla sold!

i followed.
a bit of loss is fine.

thank you Atilla, you are genius.

PCap said...

New Post

Salvador said...

im sorry i dont see us going up much more... there's a huge LT line on hourly chart that has been channeling the index since we were in the 1050 pts area... it will be tough to break...

~I think this may have been the so wave iv...

Regarding the dollar, it's too extended, fundamentally is weak and I see the EUR going back to 1,60 dollars in no time... maybe even new highs...

anthony do you see this scenario as well ?

best,

sal

ohh I see Atilla sold his longs, it was pretty much on the trend line I told you guys about, maybe he was watching that too...

Lawrence Chiu said...

salvator, can you share a chart of this LT trend line channel?

txtornado42 said...

dont underestimate this move... if we bust 882 and the get an outside day up giddy up 950

Salvador said...

Lawrence Chiu said...

salvator, can you share a chart of this LT trend line channel?

-------------------------------

sure... actually i know see a trend line from 1200 that probably was at gave support to the big bounce on thursday...

see on how once it went there we got that huge rebound ?

http://caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocios.pt/download.php?id=69900

The channel is the dry green, and the big trend line is dark green which we got reaction to it on Thursday

Placebo said...

sold my sso position

Lawrence Chiu said...

NEW POST

Sahmtrader - Moderator said...

Please everyone do not respond anymore to useless and repetitive posts. Otherwise we may all lose posting privileges again, for the day. Thanks.

Sahmtrader - Moderator said...

Atilla, are you still short ES or plan to?

Sahmtrader - Moderator said...

Let me get my hands on that person too! I covered around 851 and still wondering why on earth Atilla would have covered earlier. Now back in.