Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Comments enabled

Sorry for the inconvenience today, I had to activate moderation function during the trading hours to prevent trolls and charlatans littering the communication.

I removed the moderation, you can shoot freely now. (Hopefully we get lots of trolling in after hours for a nice gap up)

253 comments by xTrenders :

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 253   Newer›   Newest»
johnh said...

Hey Atilla,

Do you have any comments on the drop in the market? Thank you

Shawn said...

Atilla, can you take a look at OEX Puts transactions?

There were big transactions between 2~2:30 pm EST and 3:30~4pm EST.

Wonder if someone bought the puts, or dumped them.

thanks

Atilla M. Demiray said...

High volume climax low is being tested on vapors...

Gap up will not fill

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Shawn said...

Atilla, can you take a look at OEX Puts transactions?

There were big transactions between 2~2:30 pm EST and 3:30~4pm EST.

Wonder if someone bought the puts, or dumped them.

thanks

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 4:44:00 PM EST
----------------

I ll check tonite at home

apconcen said...

if we gap up we crash....this aint no regular bear

PCap said...

txtornado42 said...

we are very coiled gents. Gann talked of 7 as panic and turns. tomorrow is day 7 down from swing high on a significant number of 852. i'm looking for a big move up. Giddy up!

-----------------------------

txtornado42, can you give me some suggested reading for Gann. I've not followed his methods.

Thanks,
PCap

Susannah said...

Here's a repost of johnboy's informal study that Lawrence brought up, and it was 8/9 times it's been successful, not 15/16 as I was remembering. Anyway, here's the post:

Ladies and gents,

I have just completed a quick study of the Maclellan Osc performance during the 2000-2003 bear market.

There were 9 instances where the MOSC broke above 100.
For 8 of those events, price made a new high (often substantially higher) within 2 weeks, but the median timeframe to the new price high is approx 3-5 trading days.

The one exception to this almost perfect record was prior to the last big fall at the end of that bear market, where a new price high didn't occur - it went hard down for around 200 (-20.7%) handles over (1.5 months to form what as to be the LT bottom of that bear market. It did so with clear and clean 5 wave impulse.

My conclusions:
A) The MOSC has a pretty good track record (wish I could analyse it over the 1929 GD tho as I think that is a better parallel to our current bear market).
B) The two scenarios that could be developing are extremes - extremely profitable or extremely painful. If the MOSC performs as desired, then we're in for 1000+ within the next week. Otherwise, we're going down hard from here (as per dougs black crow warning), with the only hope for an exit being on the impending bounce in the last two days vicious selloff.

Hope this info helps.

FWIW, I escaped today relatively unharmed and am going with the probabilities, as Atilla is. I will continue to scale in. I like indus argument that a bottom around 860ish needs to prevent the bottom falling out of this thing in the ST.

Anyone who hasn't scaled in too heavily, too early, has a good chance of profiting handsomely from this, IMO.

Tor said...

Atilla,

This market feels like it can get pushed down for as long as they want it. If it goes lower then it will beget more selling? Volume ot pick up, no?

Cheers.

ROLLER said...

if we gap down we crash!

a gap up would trap all the shorts who didn't exit, judging by today's action, not many did ... we didn't even have an after hours jump in the futures.

Dan said...

IF we gap up tomorrow, it's on valid support. We nailed it today. It's the time to start getting in on starters only.

Now IF in fact we gap down tomorrow we're toast...... and i'm not convinced yet that we don't yet. GM, AXP, MS, GS....fundamentally I could see it happening.

ROLLER said...

not to bash Mclellan, but it's just an indicator ... we couldn't even manage to close above 860 for pete's sake.

Dan said...

ROLLER said...
if we gap down we crash!

a gap up would trap all the shorts who didn't exit, judging by today's action, not many did ... we didn't even have an after hours jump in the futures.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 4:50:00 PM EST

----------------------------


Exactly.

Another thing I was looking at. I thought for sure we'd gap up A/H.

Susannah said...

Oh, I know roller, I just hated for Lawrence to repeat the one instance it didn't work without at least repeating the times it has.

Dan said...

ROLLER said...
not to bash Mclellan, but it's just an indicator ... we couldn't even manage to close above 860 for pete's sake.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 4:53:00 PM EST


----------------------------

damn, you read my mind

Dan said...

I never use indicators.....EVER

apconcen said...

if we gap up we crash....this aint no regular bear

we are now gapping down...we better because if we DARE gap up...we will crash straight to the 2002 lows

sw28 said...

INTC just lowered revenue guidance by 10% ...

Abe said...

Do you still think we are going to 1000+ in the SPY

Eurobear said...

I'm out, we're just too close to the lows with terrible news all over the place.

Shawn said...

After hour news are all Terrible ....

Man! Why these companies all announce bad news right when SPX is sitting at the vital lows?!

I am still eagerly waiting for Atilla's read on OEX puts buying or dumping.

txtornado42 said...

45 Years in Wall Street by WD Gann is his famous book

Susannah said...

What's been the lower limit for the ES this year, including overnight, anyone remember? I don't have a good way to pull it up including overnight.

Ajay said...

This is not looking good.

Tesla said...

We're on the lows. If your theory is all the bad news has been sold including the worry about INTC reporting bad news, then this is the time to buy. On support, hugely oversold.

This is also the place where if panic takes hold, we will see 10 percent come off in a day.

This is a make or break trade for Atilla, no?

Who has the guts to buy here? Lock limit down heading to 750 right here and now or launch pad?

Dan said...

We're fucked IMO.

This is THE WORST time to gap down lol

Salvador said...

my AH SP500 value states 841 points, is this correct ?

Best to you all

danny said...

High volume climax low is being tested on vapors...

---

Isn't that moot with all the trapped buyers when we keep going lower? Don't we need another high-volume shake-out?

Just playing devil's advocate here. I'd love to hear your views.

Nirvanic said...

Because the market is in a steep down trend and because it's been doing nothing but going down for the last week, one has to expect this downward momentum to continue.

Front run this on the long side at your own peril.

Tor said...

I believe its game over now. The lows have been cracked in after hours. Not pretty. Next stop 750 IMO. Will see.

ROLLER said...

low on ES was 825

wejust dropped over 10 points on the INTC news ... stay out of the way, this thing is going lower.

just to think, we could have gone short Sunday night and be in the green over 100 points!

PCap said...

txtornado42 said...

45 Years in Wall Street by WD Gann is his famous book

----------------------

Thanks!

Atilla M. Demiray said...

We should gap up above 865 on ES

Tor said...

If I am right, this is going down into year end and also will be a presursor to the worst economic recession in the past 20 years. Not even barak can save this.

Sam said...

Atilla, INTC warns tonight. Things are seriously bad and market is going to wake up and realize earnings are hyped up by 30% atleast. BBY warns by 30%. INTC warns by 30%.

SPX eps cut by 30% and put a 12 PE and fair value 750 area.

Do we go there for opex?

You may be a good trader but you sure miss how fundamentals sometime do matter.

PCap said...

Susannah said...

What's been the lower limit for the ES this year, including overnight, anyone remember? I don't have a good way to pull it up including overnight.

----------------------------

825.00 on 10/27/2008 (So between close on 10/26/2008 and close 10/27/2008)

dhw said...

We still haven't gotten the brother impulse wave to the impulse wave that occurred between 10/10-10/14.

Everything that has happened since then has been corrective (ie ABC).

Even the rally that occurred from 10/28 to 11/5 was just an ABC up.

Eurobear said...

This could go either way, in whichever directions it is going to be violent. We could go a lot lower very quickly or be looking at 900+.

I can't participate after taking losses of earlier in the week and another today.

I will wait on confirmation

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Sam said...

Atilla, INTC warns tonight. Things are seriously bad and market is going to wake up and realize earnings are hyped up by 30% atleast. BBY warns by 30%. INTC warns by 30%.

SPX eps cut by 30% and put a 12 PE and fair value 750 area.

Do we go there for opex?

You may be a good trader but you sure miss how fundamentals sometime do matter.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 5:30:00 PM EST

--------------

Yes we will go there and lower... we are going to 600 in fact

But not now. Not until I get a lot of company over ES 1050

PCap said...

I think tomorrow is the day to push all in - I still have 80% left... this draw down was painful... but victory will be sweet... let us see how the open goes.

Susannah said...

I'm not bashing here, I'm just asking. How much have the "whales" shrank? The investment banks have been forced to deleverage, the hedge funds are getting redemptions left and right, etc. Are most of the bots running operated by hedge funds?

Just wondering what our realistic expectations for volume should be going forward. It seems during the Great Depression, volume dropped and stayed low.

Abe said...

Atilla,
Im in this Trade with buddy, where do we put the stop on the/ES

Will C said...

Attilla, Intel just lowered its guidance and market is selling off after hour. Are u still so confident on the market rally? You said the gap up will not be filled. What happened if there is no gap up like the last couple days?

ROLLER said...

Attila:

Given all that has happened, INTC and this relentless ride down, could you please perhaps show a chart or something as to your possible reason for a gap up

the selling actually accelerated into the close

Susannah said...

Hmph, after hours the ES finally got its measured move down to 842, low's 841.25 so far, sitting at 844.5 right now during the 4:30-5:00 break in trading.

Mr. L said...

wussss upppp

dougs charts said...

I respect Atilla and hope he is right but I doubt it.
downside targets are shown at my blog, Hoping for some capitulation tomorrow, I think we need some real fear not this ho_hum trickle down stuff.
cheers
My Blog shows Breakdown

Will C said...

Atilla M. Demiray said...

We should gap up above 865 on ES

Maybe your model doesn't work well with the current market? Might want to reduce your trades. My method worked wonder last year, but not since beginning of the year.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

chuck,
you can not use slur language and curse... this is not a yahoo board... you either post something useful or you get the hell out of here

Lawrence Chiu said...

I don't see how we can gap up after that Intel news. I'm long too but reality is sinking in.

Abe said...

Atilla,

Are you nervous about tomorrow? This is a serious question, and not intended to be condescending

txtornado42 said...

90 degree overthrow is 823. I still believe tomorrow will be the 7 day time of panic and reversal. 852 should be inflection point/ IMO

DMA said...

Atilla -

about 600 target

What % chance to see this target this year ?

or is it a 2009 target

Thanks

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Chuk said...

I see you deleted my comment. Do you have any integrity at all? Saying something like "We should gap up above 865 on ES" after a huge INTC warning is just reckless. This isn't a bash. You've made some bold predictions that have been 100% wrong. Rather than blame the market, you need to accept responsibility.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 5:42:00 PM EST
----------------

BTW I ve been the only person in the planet who made too many correct calls and trades consecutively in the past 4 months...

You can not show anyone in the history that did this.

Yes I was wrong about my last trade but this one is not over. Until it is, you have to watch and listen before bullshitting

Isaac said...

Could you explain how we could gap up at this point. We just got a major warning from a huge tech company. We have fear not seen ever. We have a market that crashes daily. I am also long and would like to know where you are coming up with the gap up. Naz futures down 20 S&P down 10. Thanks.

Isaac

dhw said...

Atilla,

Would a new spx closing low make you change your mind about a move to 1050+?

At what point do you say that your analysis is wrong?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Isaac said...

Could you explain how we could gap up at this point. We just got a major warning from a huge tech company. We have fear not seen ever. We have a market that crashes daily. I am also long and would like to know where you are coming up with the gap up. Naz futures down 20 S&P down 10. Thanks.

Isaac

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 5:53:00 PM EST

------------

Just dont go call another bull market on TT, I will take care of the rest

Darwin said...

Atilla, you will be right again,"eventually". But I respectfully disagree with your assessment. Technicals and fundamentals have taken a back seat to the psycology of this market,and you are "pressing". There is no catalyst, at this time, to buck the trend and news by INTC only confirms the the death spiral (wave 5). We may see a wash out tomorrow below 832. Many stocks are on the verge of multi year lows and some imploded today...GE, MSFT etc...As I mentioned mid morning, the commercials (whales)are shorting every rally, NOT BUYING THE DIPS.Good luck

jacek said...

the gloomy sentiment here suggests things are ripe for a reversal shortly, I think

PCap said...

jeffreyb_30319 said...

Anthony, thanks. My set up is when RSI 2 & 3 and OBV all converge on the bottom, candle has diverged under the DMA, and the TSF is under the candle, buy like a mother - as per the set up on Oct. 27th.

--------------------------------

TSF = ???

Greg said...

Atilla,

Don't let someone bashing you bother you at all. As traders, we all make wrong calls. If anyone made 100% correct calls, they would shortly own the world. What matters is at the end of the year, you've made money.

And I think the short answer you can give to anyone that is on your blog just to complain is they don't have to stay and read. I can't understand why someone would spend the time and energy to continually complain. They should just go somewhere else. (Nothing wrong with having a different opinion, that's what makes a market) But they should at least be constructive in their posts, not destructive.

c.m. said...

Atilla,

Do you believe that the whales shorted all the way from the top to here and they are flush with cash right now? Are they waiting to clean up everybody before taking this to 1050? This will indeed make them rich but I am not sure they can all synchronize that well for such a move. This is the only scenario in which I belive this trade will be succesfull. A prudent thing to do is to get out and wait for 1050 and short there. We don't know where the bottom is but we can agree that the top would be around 1050.

Chuk said...

atilla m. demiray said...
chuck,
you can not use slur language and curse... this is not a yahoo board... you either post something useful or you get the hell out of here

--------

Except I did neither. All I said was "You've lost it".

Will C said...

Chuk said...

I see you deleted my comment. Do you have any integrity at all? Saying something like "We should gap up above 865 on ES" after a huge INTC warning is just reckless. This isn't a bash. You've made some bold predictions that have been 100% wrong. Rather than blame the market, you need to accept responsibility.

--------
Well, Atilla doesn't need to response to anyone on this site. Not unless you contribute to his future hedge fund. He is just here to express his opinions.

However, portfolio value can be @ risk if he trade as bold as his statements. With proper position management, the trading size gets bigger as the portfolio grow (original value + profit), so the market doesn't need to drop as much as one gained from it to wipe out the profit.

Chuk said...

"BTW I ve been the only person in the planet who made too many correct calls and trades consecutively in the past 4 months...

You can not show anyone in the history that did this.

Yes I was wrong about my last trade but this one is not over. Until it is, you have to watch and listen before bullshitting"

-----------------

Well, I just got here for your last 2 trades and they were both terrible. As far as this trade not being over, it doesn't matter. You were wrong no matter how it turns out. You said we would reverse and close at the highs. That didn't happen. The opposite did. So even if we go up tomorrow or the next day, the premise for your trade was 100% wrong.

Joe said...

Atilla,
850 seems a very critical area to hold (for us not to crash). There are several trendlines which got tested today as well. But, in the last 2 days you mentioned the action was unusual and expect a gap up - but the AH isnt supporting gap up. Why wouldnt this unusual activity (hedge fund redemption, closing shop etc) continue all through this week and cause this slow trickle down to continue (with a gap down) tomorrow?

Isaac said...

Yeah, calling for rallies has not worked out recently. I really did think today was a good turn. Not to be. I am getting very worried. Even if we did gap up, They will just sell it hard. No one is holding this market. In the past month when we did rally, there was a reason for a rally, rate cuts, infusion of lots of cash, unless we get some kind of incredible thing coming in, we probably open down 30 on the naz and 20 on S&P.

johnboy - Moderator said...

Just posting this so I can get email notifications of new comments. Sorry for any inconvenience.

Chuk said...

"Well, Atilla doesn't need to response to anyone on this site. Not unless you contribute to his future hedge fund. He is just here to express his opinions."

I don't need a response. I merely said that he was reckless for claiming we will gap up after the INTC warning. No response required.

ROLLER said...

no is willing to beleive a gap up here ... just might happen!

It would lead to massive short covering.

They, the whales, PPT or whoever needs to keep this market alive for a little bit longer.

I`m in!

jay said...

Call me crazy. I think it is a huge head-fake.

Recall the night of Oct. 27. Everyone thought the crash was on.
Recall the night of Nov. 4. Everyone thought that the rally would go forever.

Minuette waves change directions on EOD extremes just like this.
Looking at my charts I see huge symmetries in time cycles and Gann angles.
Today is a classic Ending Diagonal - converging at all the support levels.

My take is that the most probable scenario is still the sym triangle.
Yes I know the selling today was broad and strong. I see that the fut markets are down after-hours.
The attached diagram models this scenario with idealized fibs.

Pleased to be long (will stop out if madness ensues).

http://screencast.com/t/OSDJ8KVidip

Mr. L said...

if 850 fails we will need a definite bottom like scenario like we had on oct 10th, we would have to reverse hard tomorrow if we get it, could gap and take off right away tomorrow, could gap up and fade like the oct10th bottom waterfall, either way stocks are very cheap and u should be buying some more if u can tomorrow, hold on for the long haul

Mr. L said...

jay i agree, great analysis btw, you are a great asset to this blog

jay what would be your bail out point if 850 doesn't hold intraday

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Chuk said...

"BTW I ve been the only person in the planet who made too many correct calls and trades consecutively in the past 4 months...

You can not show anyone in the history that did this.

Yes I was wrong about my last trade but this one is not over. Until it is, you have to watch and listen before bullshitting"

-----------------

Well, I just got here for your last 2 trades and they were both terrible. As far as this trade not being over, it doesn't matter. You were wrong no matter how it turns out. You said we would reverse and close at the highs. That didn't happen. The opposite did. So even if we go up tomorrow or the next day, the premise for your trade was 100% wrong.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 5:58:00 PM EST

------------

IF you came here to pimp my only bad trade and judge me on it, you have bad intentions,

I been doing this for 11 years

my performance speaks for itself

BrianK said...

Larry Pesavento is saying that there is the potential for a cycle low tomorrow and that we can have a quick bounce off the lows. Potential is 1000 for S&P. He's saying that low 700's is a target for S&P and below 7000 for the Dow eventually. Tom O'Brien is saying that we'll probably bounce off the lows because this decline has been on low volume. Tomorrow's price action is critical as to whether we break thru the previous lows or not.

Tesla said...

JAY,

Nice chart. If I rub the chart and chant Cramer, will it play out the way you have the upside drawn in?

I'm all in from 860-870 for the record, so I hope so :) Oops, I said hope.

Trader Joe said...

oh cool all the late comers that piled short into /ES on the INTC news must be feeling like they just jumped into a deep pit worrying about how they are going to get out of this thing now. Should help us edge higher into the morning

ROLLER said...

dudes, the market had plenty of chances to crash ... remember the lock limit down a few friday`s ago

even in 1929 it wasn`t all straight down, a rally is the least expected event here.

Even if you don`t go long here, at least cover your shorts.

there is a bullish wedge that developed on the charts today, AH it broke to the wrong side, massive mistake

only a gap up will make the bears run for cover here

Mr. L said...

ya why such a orderly decline if we are going to crash, just seems very fishy especially right after obama wins, extreme fear is what bottoms are made out of

low volume sell off since nov4th, if we get massive gap up i wouldn't want to be short, we won't fill that gap

danny said...

Call me crazy. I think it is a huge head-fake.
---
I thought that too. But the bad news we got today has been BAD. Sometimes news doesn't matter, but sometimes it does. Especially when we get it day after day after day.

And who would be buying anyway? The hedgies don't want to buy till they know there are no more redemptions. The mutual funds don't want to buy till retail wants to get into the market again. Who does that leave to buy?

Will said...

>>briank said...
Larry Pesavento is saying that there is the potential for a cycle low tomorrow and that we can have a quick bounce off the lows. Potential is 1000 for S&P. He's saying that low 700's is a target for S&P and below 7000 for the Dow eventually. Tom O'Brien is saying that we'll probably bounce off the lows because this decline has been on low volume. Tomorrow's price action is critical as to whether we break thru the previous lows or not.

---------------------------
Tom O'Brien missed the 3000 pt Oct crash because he felf the volume was lower than Sep 18th. Volume matters to some extent but price is primary.

dhw said...

Its orderly because its not joe six pack selling.

Its hedge funds selling at predetermined intervals. They are just walking the markets down as to not incite panic.

joe six pack is holding long and will panic at the bottom, then we will see some un-orderly selling. And i'll be panicking along with them. :-(

Atilla M. Demiray said...

will,

October crash was a continuation move, at least it was obvious to me

however We can not continue here because October crash ended with a climax on 10th

volume kills moves , we can not sell off too much here

John said...

You will think I am crazy but tomorrow is the FULL MOON

Susannah said...

I guess what I'm sitting here thinking right now is darn, Intel shares look cheap, back to 1996 prices with a 4% yield. Maybe that'll be what everyone else is thinking :)

tamas said...

My opinion is that we bottom tomorrow after a fierce gap down!!!

dougs charts said...

Ok, IF we don't gap up,
be ready for a turn at my target of 783.

TARGETS SHOWN

ref said...

Folks stop bugging Atilla. Instead, if you have any GOOD, valid analysis on how to trade this market don't be shy to post. I think Atilla has given you all he had.

The lows I expect can extend into tomorrow. Art Cashing has a cycle low on the 14th. Based on past experiences if you bought the close today (or close to the lows) you will still be able to make some money in the next few days. Especially if you are able to scalp to leverage your position of course.

Mr. L said...

sussanah but everyone is too blind by fear so they won't pull the trigger

anything after oct 10th is being controlled in my opinion, its shaking out all the weak hands after that massive crash from oct1-10th, the damage has already been done, now its in teh hands of the authorities to pickup the pieces and profit from it

c.m. said...

Long SSO small position at 24.10
I think Atilla is up to something now. He mentioned before that 80% of the volume on NYSE is generated by robots. So if they really want to inflict maximum pain for the shorts this would be a good time to do it with the gap up. Also, isaac seams to be the contrarian indicator since he only shows up here at turning points with rethoric against Atilla. If the market doesn't gap up tomorrow morning I will take my losses right away.

swingjim said...

Jay, the 27th crash would have happened if there wasn't near transaparent .gov intervention in the currency markets...the rest of the world did crash.Look at the usd/jpy action that day after the US open....my point is if treasury wants to intervene in currency markets to stop slow or reverse (temporarily) a crash they can and have just recently.

Charles said...

From S&P 500 chart, it seems 850 to 852 is a must hold area if the trading range and triangle theory is valid.

Atilla, do you have any opinion on which level will be critical tomorrow? Thanks

sepehrmusic said...

Is the Isaac that posts here the same Isaac613 on TT? What happened to your direct line to G_D? So all along you were copying whatever Atilla said?

ROLLER said...

the market will not die that fast.

think about the reactions traders will have to a gap up tomorrow morning?

some will think it's a golden opportunity to short and cover the gap (these will be the ones buying at 890+) Some smart shorts will start covering right away driving the market higher, that's why the gap won't fill.

Many stocks were off 10% today, deeply oversold.

would love to hear what other's think

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Charles said...

From S&P 500 chart, it seems 850 to 852 is a must hold area if the trading range and triangle theory is valid.

Atilla, do you have any opinion on which level will be critical tomorrow? Thanks

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 6:26:00 PM EST
------------------

865

Trader Joe said...

crude/Natgas are about to explode higher very soon and when it does it's going to trigger a massive short squeeze in the in the stock market

jay said...

Mr. L said...

...jay what would be your bail out point if 850 doesn't hold intraday
__________________

If the mkt has gone ugly for the bulls it is because wave 4 ended at the open of Nov. 10.
That would put us in the middle of a (iii) down of wave 5 - and a huge gap down at the open.
I usually wait for the first substantial pullback to get out. I never like to do anything suddenly.
If the selling is steady and systematic, I will probably get short.

10% chance. My market clock says this is coming but it is early. First we go up - perhaps Atilla style.

ROLLER said...

trader joe ... i was looking at crude as well, at $55 is a frikkin' steal ... there's gonna be major money entering the markets here.

dhw said...

Anybody notice DUG, it hit atilla's target of 45 to complete the right shoulder. Wish I had held onto that one.

in the mountains said...

jay said...

.
.
.
Today is a classic Ending Diagonal - converging at all the support levels.
.
.
.
http://screencast.com/t/OSDJ8KVidip
-------------------------

Hi Jay,

I like Ending Diagonals, they signal a change of trend and therefore usually offer a low risk trade, so I am always on the lookout for them.

This one looks cool, but there is one caveat: Elliott's rules for an ED state that wave 4 of the ED should overlap the price territory of wave 1 of the ED. Some amend that rule by stating if they don't overlap, then they should come within 10 percent of the length of wave 3 of the ED of doing so.

The "ED" on the DOW and SPX do not have waves 1 and 4 overlapping, nor are they within 10 percent of the length of wave 3.

So as much I would like to believe that we had an ED today, I don't think it's an ED by Elliott's definition.

On the other hand, I don't know how to count it in EW terms. It's hard to count the move down from the high on the morning of Nov. 10 to yesterday's low as an impulse, it counts better as wave 1 of an ED, because ED waves are zigzags. But ED doesn't look right because of what I mentioned above.

There is one other possibility. It could be an ED, but it's not done yet. The low of late this afternoon could be the end of wave 3 of the ED, not wave 5. If this pans out, then wave 4 would be early tomorrow morning and should top out at 880 to 885 on the SPX (Atilla's gap up scenario would fit this picture), and wave 5 would make a new low sometime tomorrow but not much lower than today's low. (but filling the gap to make that new low does not fit Atilla's scenario.) That's all possible and would likely leave intact the very large 4th wave triangle that began after the October 10 low.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I have a surprise for you tonight

Atilla M. Demiray said...

A special graphic

dhw said...

Jay,

I don't believe in the triangle scenario anymore, because the move off of 10/10 looks impulsive to me.

The moves after that all look corrective, so I'm looking for a wave C impulse to finish off the move.

Aalwayslearning said...

danny said...



And who would be buying anyway? The hedgies don't want to buy till they know there are no more redemptions. The mutual funds don't want to buy till retail wants to get into the market again. Who does that leave to buy?


My small experience tells me that market is always early. Everybody knows about the end of redemptions that's why she need to shoot up early to leave most of us short or flat.

Nirvanic said...

Here's how this is going to go: Asian markets will take the baton and probably go to near crash levels. Then they'll pass the baton to Europe, and European markets will tank. Then the baton will get passed to the U.S. markets which will hit the ropes again. It's just the highest probability scenario based on what has been going on since May.

Futures are already blood red but you ain't seen nothin' until the Asian markets hit the crapper.

Sorry to be the bearer of such bad news, but that is the way it is going to be.

Susannah said...

Sorry if this is a naive question, but isn't it silly to assume hedge funds are long the market anyway?

johnboy - Moderator said...

Trader joe,

Was interested in your comments about Oil and Natgas.

Can you reveal your reasons for your call? I'd like to see if they are the same as mine or different.

My views are based on the fact that the charts scream 'heavily oversold and due for a bounce', but I also have some interesting EW counts forecasting even brighter skies in the IT/LT.

For the record, I'm IT bullish nat gas also - have already opened some smallish longs.

katzo7 said...

John said,
You will think I am crazy but tomorrow is the FULL MOON.
SHould be:
You think I am crazy because tomorrow is the full moon. Just joking.
Love the panic, I am buying more tomorrow.
I will either hit it big or they will come into the trailer park and take my house trailer away on a truck. lol

katzo7 said...

Susannah,
the ones who are failing now were long.

danny said...

You could be right Aalwayslearning.

Say, doesn anyone know where to get historical charts that show volume? I tried looking at the 1929 crash at prophet.net, but they don't show volume. Was volume not tracked back in the day?

ROLLER said...

katzo ... I've already seen a tow truck circling my trailer! darn! :)

What would Jesse Livermore do?

if he was short, on bad INTC news he would cover. If you've read his book, when did he cover his positions?

Buy the rumour, sell the news.

Giddy up!

P.S. the hedge fund news has been out so long even my grandma is asking about it.

katzo7 said...

Atilla,
Surprise?
A special graphic?

Is it a real picture of Angus? Actually I feel he will learn from this--we all will--and end up being filthy rich.

Steve said...

Atilla, love to see it..thanks..

StockRake said...

A weird divergence, which may or may not hold up by Friday, is that weekly stochastics are turning UP on a down week at its exact lows. It is extremely rare that this is happening.

Two scenarios. They end up not being crossed by eow which would require more down into Friday or they are right and there will be a large reversal tomorrow that continues into Friday's close.

All of this is meaningless if the market does not go up sometime huge over the next two days. The rally should have happened already.

Tesla said...

Looking forward to the graphic.

Also bullish: CPCE. Individual equity put call ratio very high.

Volume through the sell off has increased, but very muted compared to past selloffs at this level.

Blog frustration and critics are maxing out.

Max pain on spy 98. We should at least make a run for it this far away.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Blogger ROLLER said...

katzo ... I've already seen a tow truck circling my trailer! darn! :)

What would Jesse Livermore do?

if he was short, on bad INTC news he would cover. If you've read his book, when did he cover his positions?

Buy the rumour, sell the news.

Giddy up!

P.S. the hedge fund news has been out so long even my grandma is asking about it.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 6:51:00 PM EST
-------------------

bloody hell, thats hilarious

Susannah said...

danny, I just looked at Yahoo finance on the chart for the Dow, it had volume for the '29 crash and that period.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

katzo7 said...

Atilla,
Surprise?
A special graphic?

Is it a real picture of Angus? Actually I feel he will learn from this--we all will--and end up being filthy rich.

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 6:51:00 PM EST
---------------

It is the picture of my omnipotent flux capacitor

johnboy - Moderator said...

Ladies and gents,

FWIW, here is my current analysis based on looking at the technicals and various EW counts:

Top scenarios, in order of probability:

(1) Wave B of a flat ending v soon, about to explode upward in wave C to SPX 1000+ on big volume. After than, look out below. Ideal takeoff point somewhere around 836. If SPX gets below 800, this scenario is basically dead.

(2) Wave 4 of a descending triangle ending v soon, about to move upward in wave 5, which should not exceed SPX 1005 on continuing poor volume. If SPX drops much below 834, this scenario is basically dead. After that, look out below.

(3) Wave C of a flat completed already on Nov 4. Wave 5 plunge to serious new lows and an IT bottom already underway. If volume picks up, acceleration picks up and SPX starts poking towards 800, will raise this to most preferred. A breakaway gap on good volume would seal the deal. Look out below.

(4) IT bottom already in on 28 Oct with a very ugly ending diagonal, and this is a very deep retest before powering upward, ripping everyone's skin clear off. Not likely, IMO.

Because the options are extreme in either direction, I would consider myself a first class fool to put down big positions in either direction at this stage. Keeping it small unless a really good entry presents itself.

katzo7 said...

Roller,
You really crack me up. Need a manager for your next stage appearance as a comedian, the next Steve Martin, or what Atilla would say, the next Steve Soros.
Hey I just hit on your stage name.
lololol

JT said...

Just my observation, but when we had wild and crazy, up/down/up/down a few weeks ago it seemed like yahoo finance page always post a huge orange banner saying the world is coming to an end. I can't remember seeing one in this week at all!!

John said...

full moon- new moon- many times are trend changers

Trader Joe said...

Johnboy the correlation in the movement of the stock market and oil has been pretty spot on. I'm not an Elliot expert but I'm always looking for 5's and 3's in the wave structure and I count 5 down an extremely over sold oil market as of today.
Also, based on the way the stock market wants to rise on any faint uptick in oil suggest that the market is looking towards oil prices for the 1st signs that the Fed's efforts at reflation are starting to kick in.. I believe higher oil is very positive for the stock market for the time being. Oil looks ripe for a huge surge higher imo

Susannah said...

The time we got that huge upmove when everyone was expecting a crash was when the moon cycle was on day 27/28. Several big crashes have happened on day 27/28 in October. They got the big move part right, just wrong direction.

johnboy - Moderator said...

Trader joe,

Thanks for taking the time to elaborate.

catherine said...

Susaane
I see an early morning London low of 825.1 (beteen 7am and 8am on 27 Oct)

I do not understand people talking about 850 holding when we are already trading below it - right now 846 and we have been lower.
I trade cfd's and they get stopped out 24 hours a day.
I am sure one misses something by not following all the price action after hours. For me the previous low was 825.1 as above, not 840.

It's a really odd thing this idea of the market open or closed and gaps. If you were trading fx instead of stocks, you would never thing about when the futures are open as they are an irrelevance in volume terms compared to 24 hour a day interbank.
All the best

Atilla M. Demiray said...

hey roller.... you hurt my stomach.
freaking hilarious. thanks for the fix, now i can buy a few more ES before harvy calls me

jay said...

in the mountains said...

...The "ED" on the DOW and SPX do not have waves 1 and 4 overlapping, nor are they within 10 percent of the length of wave 3.
________________

My EW book didn't mention that but it makes complete sense. I guess that's how you tell an ED from (humm...) a normal EW going dowwwwwwn. Thanks for that distinction. I'm going to make it part of my standard kit.



in the mountains said...

...There is one other possibility. It could be an ED, but it's not done yet...
________________

So we have some more *sweet gyrations* ahead. So if we rally above the end of i its a keeper. As Atilla mentions above, SPX 865.

Just imagine if you could put your finger on all the minuette-scale turning points in the last two months - or if Atilla lent you the keys to his time machine. The house would be filled to the rafters with bank notes! Exciting times!

katzo7 said...

Hey,
GM went up 5 % today and Ford up 2%.
A tell for tomorrow?
lol

Susannah said...

trader joe, the short squeeze in oil, though, doesn't have to happen until next week since the deadline is the 20th. Still leaves tomorrow a bit of a question mark, IMO. For a trade, though, I really don't see a ton of downside for going long oil right now. When a commodity gets cut more than 1/2 I take notice because long-term speculators can only sustain a price twice as high as the people wanting delivery would maintain, it seems to me, since they all have to sell to someone wanting delivery in the end. Shorter-term speculators can make it higher for a very limited period of time, I think oil from about ~130-145 was purely short-term speculation. It's still fallen by over half from 130. Of course, speculation can make it undershoot, too, and there's demand destruction and supply glut, but I don't think the supply/demand stuff has much to do with the recent moves.

ROLLER said...

no probs Attila!

we need to thank-you for providing this blog!

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Test...

Trader Joe said...

susannha another thing the commercials are net long oil for the 1st time in a while.

Johnboy what was your take/wave count on the oil market ?

goblin said...

I don't like to post - every post , potentially will influence some weak soul to stay on over leveraged trade for too long. , but look at $/Yen now - never dropped below 11 a.m. lows. I take it as a sign for bottom ST.

jeffreyb_30319 said...

Anthony, I was looking at getting into ES when the stars line up but the more I think about it the more concerned I am about being on the wrong side of this market. If I follow the leader of this blog, it will be a small position. I would rather find something to short using the set up you suggest so I can be saved by the trend if I screw up.

I "was" a pretty big player in the RE development business in Atl. and Florida and got burned by being leveraged on the wrong side when the trade turned. I can't afford to do that again and buying in a bear market would be making the same mistake. I rent now, no way I would buy a house. Same goes for stocks, I will sell or rent them, I'm not a big buyer.

Take it for what it is worth, I also know the games being played to continue to prop up the residential RE values. The foreclosures are being reported, the "deed in lieu" are not. Foreclosures make headlines, but the real numbers of vacant home inventory continues to climb under the radar. We have to get to a point where a investor can buy a home, rent it, and cash flow. We are a long way off from there, too many beds, not enough butts. If you wanted to buy a house for your family you can't, no loans available. The prospect list of home buyers goes down every day due to credit issues, loan requirements, immigration law, fear, job loss, etc. As goes the value of most American consumers biggest asset, goes our economy. It has much, much further to fall, IMHO.

Although we might get a little bump here with a small run up the next couple days, things will converge to the truth and the truth is we are in deep dodo.

mulli said...

Just an observation, it seemed strange that airlines sold off so dramatically today with oil cratering. Maybe the smart money was selling the airlines in the anticipation of a advance in oil.

Steve said...

Let's not let this happens to us...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3O55ddcZWCI

Atilla M. Demiray said...

lolll

PCP said...

How about this? SPY will trade below 80 this week. Why? B/C that's where my next buy point is.

Let's do all of us a favor and stop calling bottom everyday. Sure, one of these days you will be right but by then no one will be around to listen.

I don't care about bottoms here. I don't think we can come this close to the 2003 lows on SPX and not test them or pierce them. We will do both, maybe before Nov Opex too. The way I see this playing, we may get another bounce tomorrow or the day after that and then continue meandering down on low volume. At critical levels, low volume will turn into high volumes and then higher. That's how momentum builds. I am prepared for an entry in SPY below 80 and even 70.

Be careful out there.

dougs charts said...

I am curious to see how everyone here is positioned. Please take this poll, thanks...

market positon poll

its in the upper right hand corner
thanks again

ROLLER said...

susannah ... thx for the 1929 chart on Yahoo ...

on Nov 12th 1929, the Dow set a low at 209.74, it then rallied to 260.12 on Dec 6th for an approx 24%gain!

A 24% gain from here gives us, ahemm, 1050 on the ES.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it~!

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Gezzz, am i the only one fully long... i thought you guys would gimme a hand shoottt

Alan B said...

your not the only one

I am so fully long I am about to puke

ROLLER said...

I'm in there w/ you Attila!

All in ... (w/ a stop)

Tony said...

Atilla,

so how low do you think SPX can possibly go before an upturn? SPX aftermarket is down 10pts.below 800 possible?

johnboy - Moderator said...

Trader Joe,

Clearly impulsive down. Technicals diverging. Ripe for a bounce at least.

Longer term wave count - not sure and don't much care at this stage.

Trader Joe said...

I'm roughly 50% in.

Trader Joe said...

Dec. crude is getting so cheap that you cant go wrong scaling in one mini at a time all the way down to zero if it must lol

Livermost said...

Who is that Atilla, Ol' one eye McShorten?

nacho said...

I'd like to see a rally here, I have a long position and added to it. My little voice tells me though longs will be punished... Too many have called a bottom on this one. This is a great entry for a long if it can hold up, otherwise 780 here we come.

Susannah said...

haha, Atilla, I was fully long, then got stopped, then was fully long, got stopped, fully long, got stopped. Stops were very generous. Fully long meant fully long. So, I've lost all that you made me in October, since I didn't go fully into your calls then since I'd just discovered you. Easy come, easy go.

You keep me up at night, anyway, with your dramatic calls that I can't close out EOD, LOL. I'm ready to go back to my two hours a day of daytrading :) I think my kids and husband are getting lonely.

Ajay said...

I went long at the end of the day. But really nervous...

Tesla said...

Prediction:

Graphic will be Xtrends daily traffic vs Market turning points.

bunnyboy said...

I am fully long spy at your entry on ES. You have got company!

ssny2004 said...

Hey Atilla

I dont see how you are calling for a gap up tomorrow, if it gaps that will be an impressive call

I think far more likely is a gap down tomorrow to get fear in the market, today put call was hardly indicative of fear

1929 bottomed not in Oct but on Nov 14th, today is Nov 12th, we will bottom similarly maybe

Salvador said...

Nirvanic said...

Here's how this is going to go: Asian markets will take the baton and probably go to near crash levels. Then they'll pass the baton to Europe, and European markets will tank. Then the baton will get passed to the U.S. markets which will hit the ropes again. It's just the highest probability scenario based on what has been going on since May.

Futures are already blood red but you ain't seen nothin' until the Asian markets hit the crapper.

Sorry to be the bearer of such bad news, but that is the way it is going to be.


--------------------------

well the other day Asian markets after some sell off they opened 8% down and closed +1%...

There's a saying for stock markets:

Big down open - Bull .... Big up open - Bearish

tradeback said...

Atilla,
I am long and hurting a bit. I have ammunition for another 1-2 days depending on the level.
Thank you for your comments and future graphic.

Nirvanic said...

Nikkei went straight down 400pts at open. Hang Sang headed south 800 to 1000pts.

No gap up. The buy might come an hour into the session tomorrow when/if selling is completely exhausted.

Front run at your own peril.

If Atilla is right, I'll be the first to apologize. And I'm not bashing him, anyway, just pointing out that the probabilities point to more downside before any upside.

BTW, I am long and would really like it if Atilla were right on this one but I just don't see it.

Radium said...

50% long here ..looking to add more

dhw said...

US leads, the rest of the world follows, so its irrelevant what asia does because its just following what the US markets did today.

Steve said...

not much gun powder left here..

Susannah said...

dhw, I agree with the US leading lately. Have been thinking why not just give up the US markets and trade the Nikkei morning opening assuming it'll do what the US did.

Sometimes I think we traders just like a challenge and that's why we do what we do.

John said...

Yen is going down ( up numerically) usd/jpy- almost a perfect inverse correlation- when the yen goes down ( up numerically) our market rises. Yen has a pretty good run going tonight.

jay said...

I'm only 25% in - and this in ETFs. I usually only trade index options but I have delevered because of the vol and the dreaded IV crush.

If you think the event is a coin toss - get out. If you want to increase your skills stay in but get small - the learning experience is 10x more powerful when you do it than when you watch it. That's just human nature.

STLKID63141 said...

Tomorrow, I hope we go higher Still LONG ..UWM…. But I think going higher is a pipe dream,

Trend is your friend.

We are heading lower until some sort of catalyst turns the market positive again.

Intel after hour’s news. Poor

Tomorrow, the Trade deficit and the weekly Jobless claims at 8:30

Then The Budget deficit at 2:00.

There is a high Probability tomorrow I will unload my position at a loss.


PS: Jesse always had a stop loss at 10% He never wanted to lose more than 10 percent on one position…..

Good luck to everyone

jeffreyb_30319 said...

pcap, TSF is Time Series Forecast, you can find it on Prophet. It was suggested to set on 20.

katzo7 said...

Salvador,
"Futures are already blood red but you ain't seen nothin' until the Asian markets hit the crapper." I only see them down spx 5.70 now.
And Indus' entry about two or three of Atilla's postings back was extremely interesting. Things became crystal clear after reading that. MMs will force a double bottom to shake us all out so those bast**ds can get in cheap. The big question is, where is the bottom?

Chuk said...

Atilla,
What is your plan for this trade? Where will you add to your position, or stop out?

Richard said...

Hey Doug's Charts!!

We're neighbors. I'm just west of you, across that river that flows north. Would like to converse with you. Is there a good email to use? Mine richard9999@hotmail.com

My take on this convolusion. Gap down tomorrow, followed by upthrust to 860, followed by selloff down to 830. Friday heads down to 790 and we have a reversal.
Just an intermediate low, until Feb.

Alan B said...

nikkei seems to be bouncing off the 500 point drop at the open....

ROLLER said...

what's the matter chuck?

yin said...

chuck is chucking his toys out his pram?

Chuck said...

Probably the DUMBEST TRADE I EVER SAW LONG es 990.


lolololololololololol

Bu even worse, follow it up with another STUPID FUCKING LONG TRADE IN THE MIDDLE OF A CRASH.

GOOD LUCK WITH THOSE STUPID FUCKING LONGS.

LOLOLOLOL


RUFCRAZY !! %$^%&)(**& ????

bill108 said...

Atilla

I am also long with you hopefully I do not turn into an "investor" on this trade as I am out of bullets. any have called 10/10 a bottom -hope it holds-waiting for the panic up move.

Anyone heard from Angus?? miss his comments

Salvador said...

you guys 50% long already ? Geezz... i'm only 3%

anyways here's the current count

http://caldeiraodebolsa.jornaldenegocios.pt/download.php?id=69735

yin said...

chuck did you attempt to follow atilla's trade and got wiped out? is that why you are going cuckoo? you probably want to get some anger management and brush up on your money management.

yin said...

bill108,

angus blew up his account then blew his top. i suspect chuck is an alter ego of angus.

danny said...

Susannah said...

danny, I just looked at Yahoo finance on the chart for the Dow, it had volume for the '29 crash and that period.
--
Thanks Susannah.

Ouch. I didn't like what I found. The Dow had a selling climax followed a few days later with a retest on lower volume. So far so good, though that took it down an additional -10.94%.

But here's the kicker. Several days after that, it hit a NEW low, going down -14.65%!

So the selling climax (and high volume) didn't stop the move. It went down a total of 25.54% AFTER the selling climax.

And it all happened in the space of 16 days.

Chuck said...

Lat somment I swear.

I will buy this pig every 100 down from 7800 DOW.

$300k of es firepower so yes you do have the right idea, but C'mon, FUCKING 990 ES????? AND THEN CLOSE FOR A SMART 23 DOWN ?

WTF ARE YOU THINKING ?????

WAIT FOR 7,882 AT LEAST....

maberma said...

Furious short-term rally to start tomorrow. Selling after hours made market more oversold....superoversold. Sentiment ,cycles, full moon, options exp,even Vix chart and especially seasonality going back to 1903. Cash S&P to 1000-1025, maybe a little bit higher. Maybe we have seen the lows for 2008....if not, marginal new lows after this rally. Lower lows sometime next year. Remember, Thanksgiving & Xmas coming up. Go watch a movie tonight with a Xmas theme...then you'll know what I mean. Psychology can change on a dime this time of year. I have also noticed (over the last 35 years that I have traded this market) that the human psyche can only handle about 6-7 weeks max of depressionary news. Then it looks for whatever it can dig out of the ground to change the tune. I feel good that I sold my shorts and went long at the end of the day. Sure it was scary to see the aftermarket selling, but it held enough support, and became even more oversold....Besides, some professional traders I communicated with today (who are a lot smarter than me) turned bullish also...even if just for the ST. Maybe the best thing to do if you are long is to literally turn off the computer tomorrow and don't turn it on until the market closes...easier said than done...

Alan B said...

some poetry

Im feeling stuck
and out of luck
I went way to long trying to make a quick buck
hopefully tomorow's open doesnt suck
to top it off there is Chuck
who is annoying as fuck
i wish someone would drive a truck
right over chuck

c.m. said...

10 % long here. The perfect setup for the pigmen would be to gap this up and attract all the shorts to fade the gap. Only this time the gap will not fade. If the shorts have time to cover it means the pigmen are still short and I will get out of my long. Can't wait to see what Atilla has in store for us.

Chuck said...

I NEVER TOUCHED THAT POS TRADE.

Will email acct history to anyone who cares.

Have been watching Atilla in stunned silence since 990 es.


Just call me STUNNED.

I MADE $ DURING THIS CRASH, however since I do respect Atilla's record, he f'd up by being long the crash so far as I made All MY $ LONG ($3K WHOO HOO, ie.e big deal) but was smart enough to bail quickly.

GL longs.

I actually do think we will see 1000 SPX in a month or so. May not be in time for Dec es longs though unless they roll.

yin said...

Wednesday, November 12, 2008 8:14:00 PM EST
Blogger Chuck said...

Lat somment I swear.

===================================

I thought you said that was your last comment??

ROLLER said...

alan b ... the market has already driven all over chuck.

Poor chuck, he's dumb as f.ck!

Chuck said...

OUT

GL

yin said...

Chuck said...

OUT

GL

====================================

u gonna keep ur word this time??

Gallo said...

Alan: Niccccce! But, I think he has a point. Now, I know it's not TA, but 1929 which at least somewhat resembles the present structure, saw a 49% decline before it had its first meaningful bounce. That bounce was good for almost 50% (before it REALLY fell off a cliff). That would essentially be the 2002 lows. I was thinking and wrote we would reach at least the Oct 10th lows but if breached 2002 is next. The low volume would seem to support a breach. It may take abit before it punches through but it's looking increasingly likely. So we can add that to the opinion pot. Dow 4000 at some point which is the beginning of the parabloic rise of the previous secular bull.

Gallo said...

All in cash waiting.

Lana said...

Chuck,

If I was your mother (thank goodness I'm not), I would send you to your room. I always told my children that if they could only use foul language, the world would hold them in disdain. We are adults on this board. Have some respect for yourself and us and clean it up!...Lana

AZ said...


Atilla M. Demiray said...

Gezzz, am i the only one fully long... i thought you guys would gimme a hand shoottt


I'd been long since monday. Pretty much finished loading my trading lots. Left about %25 for SSO, plan to use it to catch some gap down in the morning.

AZ

Beyond said...

You know what's weird? How come the Aaroon, even with today's sell off is pointing up on the 60 minute chart? ADX still strong negative though... stupid Paulson.

Pokerden said...

I am LONG with Atilla. I was short from 96...sold all my puts...bought calls today especially at end of day.
Have 83 as a stop. After all its at the bottom of the trading range...who would want to short right now? Its dangerous all the easy money has been made. WAY oversold on the 30 and 60 stochs and rsi. Do I think its impossible that it will waterfall? Absolutely not, thats why I have stop :-P But my bet is we go up. I say we hit the upper part of the triangle, or at least try to one last time...so here is shooting for 100 spy :)

Farley said...

im fully long as well,....waiting for the flux capacitor to be energized,....later tonite.... I assume.


thanks attilla,...even if some trades go wrong, im still learning a ton from this blog.

Lana said...

I saw earlier a possible rectangle forming but didn't have the second high on it. 844 was what I saw at the bottom and hoped it wouldn't come to that. If price trades for more than the 15 minute below at opening I will leave the trade.

I saw some pretty strong volume going into SPY today, and I felt the whole day looked so danged fixed.

These are strange times, it's getting so hard for me to read the charts. May have to leave it alone until sanity comes back.

dougs charts said...

Wow, hardly no one is short or partially short according to this poll.

Mostly longs in this poll, vote now!

The Pearl said...

Now that Atilla has changed his avatar and rid himself of Woody, I believe the world will return to normal and Atilla will return to making money. Woody was a very bad influence. Shorting the ten year notes in after hours and will short more tomorrow if equities take any hit.

AntG said...

I only have one reason to be long tomorrow; this market has me fearful. Therefore, I will act the opposite.

I'm with you Atilla. (with a tight stop!!)

Beyond said...

This trade has turned in to a huge loss but I'm still with Atilla on us getting a huge rally in the next day or too. This does NOT come from just blindly following him but from my own research. We have positive divergence on the 15 minute, an Aroon on the 60 that is about to turn and we are WAY oversold (not that that means much in this market). And look at the money flow, still quite consistent. I think we are going up this week. That's my opinion anyway.

Anthony said...

Jeffrey,


Youre next short using my setup will be UUP.. I wait patiently like I did on my oil short.. I am so confident of this setup and the dollars demise I will be buying 490K worth of UUP puts when the time is right.. I expect it to play out as follows. The dollar will sell off hard for a day or two close to the top like oil did. Astute investors like us will know that wasnt the top.. Then just like oil did it will rip back up to take out its high from a few weeks earlier.. When that happens you will get a nice 5-6 gap with DMA and DMA will start rolling over. Combine that with the fundamentals of a severely overvalued dollar and the stars will align.. Im up over 1000 % on my USO puts.. I expect the same return on my UUP puts.. I think Ill get my setup in two weeks to a month..

Mr. L said...

im holding until we get a 50% retrace going back up in teh indexes even if we go to 739 we have to go back up to 1150 on S&P its all math baby

the crooks on wall street can blow me im young and have time to my advantage; i'll hold onto the longs i bought today until im green in the face and in the wallet

:thumbsup:

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