Wednesday, October 8, 2008

True bottom will be printed today

I expect ES to test 950 before we reverse for a multi-month rally.

The current gap up due to the globally coordinated rate cuts will completely fade in my opinion and we will be down like 40-60 ES points (from yesterday's close) this afternoon. This will create a true panic and washout.

Later in the day, I expect a reversal. We will probably reverse to close the day between ES=1050-1070. If it doesnt come before the close, we will gap up and never look back. I think ES will close the week above 1130.

I will post intraday updates at critical junctures.

175 comments by xTrenders :

Really Lost said...

I am truly astounded you will stay short from here looking for a new low. But hey, that's why you double your money like crazy.

Given a pop at the open, I want to fade it? Any key levels I should look for? 1040?

Shawn said...

I will be following you closely, Atilla.

Again, Many Thanks for sharing your actions with all of us.

Greenie said...

This pop is a shorting opportunity.

KB said...

Altia...
I used to watch you and Yuri duke it out at TT.

I have question....I keep seeing people like yourself that appear to have a very good handle on the market and you referring to "I think the market will be faded, the boys will do this or that".
From my naive perspective, it seems like 'The Boys' are now pretty much gone (Lehman et al) and Hedge funds have just come off their WORST month in history....so, WHO is they ? Because its not the investment bankers and its not the hedge funds.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

1040 is a very good point to enter shorts, with a proper stop.

Do you remember , few weeks ago, what I had said about these interventions and manipulations?

Market will react negatively.

I was saying, they will cut rates, market will plunge. They will pump liquidity, market will plunge...

They passed the bill, market sold off more than 1000 points.

They pump liquidity, they give credit to small businesses, market sold off more.

Today was the most shocking part of the episode. A global intervention will look like a waste of money and effort. That point, they shall be no hope left for the bag holders.

We will see 9K on dow.

Remember this post?

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2008/09/dow-9k-in-6-months.html

I should have made the title: "Dow 9K in 6 weeks? "

Atilla M. Demiray said...

KB said...

Altia...
I used to watch you and Yuri duke it out at TT.

I have question....I keep seeing people like yourself that appear to have a very good handle on the market and you referring to "I think the market will be faded, the boys will do this or that".
From my naive perspective, it seems like 'The Boys' are now pretty much gone (Lehman et al) and Hedge funds have just come off their WORST month in history....so, WHO is they ? Because its not the investment bankers and its not the hedge funds.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008 8:35:00 AM EDT
-------------------

Those had never been the boys. Boys , in my opinion, stand for the most liquid part of the smart money.

KB said...

OK, call me dumb....but I honestly don't understand your answer and I'm not good at reading between the lines on this one.

PCP said...

Just go to my comp and /ES is already negative. I guess that pump lasted all of 2 hours. It is actually accelerating downward as we speak.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Lehman Bros and other WS firms had never been the boys as you think. They always been the suckers. Protected suckers. They are gone now.

Smart money has no certain identity imo

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Dear God, ES printed 980

Really Lost said...

Snooze ya loose :) At least I covered my long from 965 last night.

Art Cashin expecting a washout and recovery today too.

PCP said...

At this rate, the markets might be down 40 ES points at the open :-)

I will be looking to scale more into my long positions if that happens at the open. Good luck out there today, everyone.

Paul said...

Would it be volume or the key ES levels from the charts as key and big reversal we are talking about...

Scamper said...

Atilla - I have incredible respect for your market analysis and prediction abilities. Certainly they have made me money. However, I think you underestimate the economic forces at work. The banking system is falling apart. Solid industrial companies are getting crushed because they cannot turn their ST commercial paper over. Until the credit market stabilizes, there will be no bottom because the fallout of it remaining locked up is hard to comprehend. There will be no multi-month rally when real companies (as opposed to financial leeches) start failing daily because of financing.

I can tell you first hand in the real business world, things are deteriorating very rapidly.

matNY said...

will uyg bounce back with the rally?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

yes , it will but we will sell off first

When ES tests 995, i recommend you to get out

you can buy it later

Atilla M. Demiray said...

it may already topped out ,

es tested 992-93

PCP said...

This is one fast market right now. I can't even get an order in before the bid/ask completely shifts away from me. :-(

Oh well, I will just have to wait for it to calm down.

Shawn said...

This market is REALLY FAST!!

I have not seen this ultra fast price movement in my life!!

bubb said...

Anybody else using TOS and having data feed freezes?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Folks, we will sell off hard from here, this is the last chance before the biggest drop

Joul said...

The futures are having fun drawing letter "V,M,W"

tamas said...

Atilla, do you still think we'll test 950???

student4life said...

no washout today? VIX up +2 from yesterday but now 0.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

We will undercut 950 in a few hours

Gozen said...

Thanks for the updates, Atilla

aymon said...

attila, you buying or holding onto puts in anticipation of the plunge today? thanks

PCP said...

Found this to be too funny not to post here for your consumption:

"The French government won't allow any French bank to fail, French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde said Wednesday, repeating the government's position. "The government will not let any bank fall..."

aymon said...

no bank left behind hehe

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I shorted SPZ at 1023-25

sahmtrader said...

SPZ? I can't find it on IB. SPY? Thanks.

bubb said...

spz=regular s&p future, $250 delta iirc

Wiseowl from Texas said...

Are you short ES now...?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

i am short ES from 1041 from yesterday

but i shorted SPZ this morning additionally in other accounts

Steve said...

Amazing...It's just amazing how you do this! I've been following you for the last few days, and I don't think you've made a mistake yet!

I'm scaling in a small long position, but I'll wait for 950 for the bigger buy. Once again, thanks for making this available to us civilians!

And I'm looking forward to putting money behind you when you open your fund.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I sincerely wish that those who were long used this mornings rally to sell

there will be a great time to buy this market at much lower prices today

I wish everybody best of luck

Andrew said...

yes i sold a couple longs i purchased this am on your call...thank you

sahmtrader said...

Atilla, you bet. Took profits from GS, UYG and SPY. reversed to short SPY and bought SKF for now.

Thanks again!

PCP said...

950 could be here between 11:30 and high noon. Let's get ready people.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

those on the floor, i know they are reading these too ....you know you are going to get run over dont you?

sahmtrader said...

That was funny!

anabolic said...

"those on the floor, i know they are reading these too ....you know you are going to get run over dont you?"


Atilla I don't understand this sentence what do you mean?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

it wont be funny for some in an hour, turn on CNBC please.

Vineet said...

HI Atilla, How high do you expect the S&P 500 to go during this multi month rally? I was planning to buy SSO. Appreciate your help and advice.

PCP said...

"those on the floor, i know they are reading these too ....you know you are going to get run over dont you?"

Yeah, that's a distinct possibility. You can't learn to get up if you never get knocked down ;-)

angus said...

I got stopped out on my shorts from 1008 and 1017 earlier, awful timing ouch!

Atilla, makes sense to short again or wait for the low to get long

Atilla M. Demiray said...

any short taken above ES 1000 will do great in a few

AJ said...

Hi Atilla

How much do you see market rallying in the wake of bad earnings ahead?

S&P is still expensive on what will be huge revisions to eps, looks like forward eps are in reality around $50-$60 forward 12 mo.

thanks

Atilla M. Demiray said...

earnings dont matter, it is all about demand supply

i ll let you know when i cover and start buying

angus said...

Thanks Atilla! by all means include me in your email list for whenever you start that fund

you have a gift!

AJ said...

thanks LMAO

you are right, it's supply demand

angus said...

EPS??? that's nonsense

They fill our heads with all the nonesense about earnings and cash flows, these are for academia and the analysts, what matters is supply and demand, but it's hard to figure on a consistent basis, very very very few people have Atilla's trading skills

PCP said...

"it is all about demand supply"

Truer statement has never been spoken about the market. It took me years and many thousands of dollars to learn and understand that. If only I had read some technical analysis books sooner :-)

angus said...

Atilla, how far to you usually set your hard stops after an entry on ES in particular, I appreciate your advice!

Bill said...

I'm sure Attilia's target on the upside is hit this week. I think that the reason the end of the short ban was accelerated to tonight is so that the uptick rule can be re-instated. Better ability to hedge and the psychological comfort of the uptick rule (useless and unenforceable) should ramp the end of the week.

thedocument said...

Feels like everyone is holding their breath in here!

PCP said...

Feels like the down move is over.

angus said...

another lower high forms a triangle, it should accelerate soon, but I'm not getting short, got my butt kicked twice today

jeff said...

I agree i think es will now head up

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Please save your dimes and dont jump in front of the train until it stops

Gozen said...

"Please save your dimes and dont jump in front of the train until it stops"

HAHA

jeff said...

if we go to 950 es today i will buy attila a boat

Matthew said...

lol, Atilla FTW

AJ said...

pcp and jeff have decided to be today's greenie

illiac64 said...

What we need to see is a freefall, which would indicate that there are no more buyers left.

As long as suckers keep buying and getting stopped out, the boys will be selling.

buylo said...

jeff, I think the QEII is for sale by the uk gov.

meco1999 said...

Atilla,

Which would you recommend for the multi-month rally? SPY or XLF?

Tony said...

Attila (if you have time/feel like it): I know you've said price/volume is what you mostly look for for calling the swings.

Any other [leading or confirmatory) indicators?

I'll give an example: What changed yesterday's 990 reversal target to today's 950 one? Was it that volume didn't dry up as much as you thought?

PCP said...

"pcp and jeff have decided to be today's greenie"

Let me just save everyone the trouble and say that Atilla is right again. I made good money today on the downside and now am positioned for the upside. That's all that matters anyway. Whether you make money or now; right or wrong comes right after that :-)

thedocument said...

Tony,

I asked that question yesterday. He apparently only uses price, volume, and chart patterns.

doc

Atilla M. Demiray said...

i have a pair of eyes, somehow they speak when they see something on the tape

these eyes are trained over 11 years, for 15 hour a day, 5 days a week, 56 week a year

they keep observing price, volume and their movements around trend lines and patterns

angus said...

I've seen many traders watching a gizillion indicators and still lacking consistency

Knowledge is one thing, experience is another, but there is also something else almost like a 6th sense that few people possess (like Atilla)

zigzag said...

Atilla, I see you are a workaholic but 56 weeks a year? lol Way to go man. Way to go.

GWBush said...

I think Atilla is very clear with his market forecast, his market timing, and his entry and exit prices. I don't know why you guys keep asking him stupid questions? Can you guys stop giving your own opinions of the market and stop bothering Atilla with stupid questions?

I am here to listen and learn from Attila and nothing else.

jeff said...

buylo, i am looking for something better to add to his fleet!

angus said...

Atilla, can you throw a quick note in this thread when you get long? thanks a million!

thedocument said...

I second GW.

zigzag said...

I'm just kidding by the way. But for the record there are 52 weeks in a year like there are 52 cards in a deck (minus the jokers). Sorry for the frivolous banter. I shouldn't distract you.

J

Atilla M. Demiray said...

GWBush said...

I think Atilla is very clear with his market forecast, his market timing, and his entry and exit prices. I don't know why you guys keep asking him stupid questions? Can you guys stop giving your own opinions of the market and stop bothering Atilla with stupid questions?

I am here to listen and learn from Attila and nothing else.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008 12:07:00 PM EDT
-----------------

please be nice to the others. The reason I am doing this is to help people in this turbulence so they can distinguish who is who

Marketsense said...

Just sit and watch now. Thinking about buying some OIH and dig for a rebound play.

GWBush said...

Sorry Atilla for my comment. Not only you are a great trader, but you are truly a man of great character and patience.

Haus Frau said...

Is it possible that the reason the short calls seem to be more accurate (I realize that Atilla made money on the Longs but the entries seem to be important) is the general trend of the market is or has been down? So until there is a real reversal you are fighting the trend going long?

Also how would we know a midday reversal was only temporary like the one on Monday?

Joul said...

I totally agree on let Atilla speaks other than opinion from others as to when to enter/exit.

kam said...

Atilla, thank you for helping so many people, you are the best.

dhw said...

Seems like everybody trying to catch the bottom. More equity calls than puts on cboe..

dhw said...

Bottom won't be in until we see more equity puts than call after the market starts to rally and people are convinced that the rally won't hold and its just anothe shorting opp.

Marketsense said...

Added FCX, another rebound play. Atilla's call has been great!

angus said...

the emptysuits on CNBC are trying to rationalize why the market is down when the Fed cuts rates::)))

at least we're having a laugh about it

sahmtrader said...

No one is having a laugh. Anyone can be on the wrong side of the market. The market giveth and taketh away. So let's be humble here.

Vin said...

I'm trying to learn from Atilla's posts, so I'm probably way off. When big guys are herding in one direction, a lot of heavy buying/selling is likely done through program trading. For the most part, computer programs follow fixed rules, and so patterns might emerge...

That said, breaking 973 seems to be key, and it corresponds to a retrace off of a lower trend target than Atilla's: 920-940 range.

Still, I'll side by Atilla's experience.

Shawn said...

Atilla, the dumb suckers are still buying more calls than puts with ratio of 0.9.

Do we have to wait till they capitulate, or they do not matter any more at this junction?

Thanks

alan b said...

im crying

angus said...

Hey I lost a decent amount today, I'm not laughing at others' pain, I'm just laughing at the commentators

Boy some of you are in a mood to rip soembody's face, cool off!

Marketsense said...

I lost money in the past too. The market has been in the panic mode. Hope every one here could survive and make a fortune.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Shawn said...

Atilla, the dumb suckers are still buying more calls than puts with ratio of 0.9.

Do we have to wait till they capitulate, or they do not matter any more at this junction?

Thanks

Wednesday, October 8, 2008 12:51:00 PM EDT

-------------

Market will be down huge soon, patience

Do you see me covering?

I will post when I cover and go long

angus said...

The 60EMA in 5min ES chart has kept a lid on the market since the rollover yesterday, currently at 998.50

Shawn said...

Bonds are in a rout here. Could be smart money leaving and getting into stocks?!

angus said...

I don't see rout in bonds, 13-week yield is off the lows but still 10% from yesterday's close and TED spread is 379 from a high of 402

Lawrence Chiu said...

$TNX has been moving up all day while stocks are moving down all day. Where is the money going if not into equities? Not bonds, as seen in TLT.

Shawn said...

I am talking about 10-year treasury.

Similar thing happen yesterday when bond sold off with the market, very unusual.

If bonds are the leading indicator, it is screaming a market buy now.

angus said...

you're right about 10-r and VIX hit 59+

takes big balls to stay short right now, but i guess if you have a cushion 20-40 pts, you can chance it

Atilla M. Demiray said...

In market crash, dollar, bonds, gold everything goes down.. that is just another indication of fear

sahmtrader said...

Atilla, are we still to go to the tune of 950? Thanks.

alan b said...

here we go back down again, hopefully this is the final shake out

Atilla M. Demiray said...

we will undercut 950

you see those suckers on TT?

They think they are buying the dip

I never seen them calling bottom or top

jeff said...

who is TT?

angus said...

One thing is a concern: too many calls for bottom, CNBC says there are flocks of traders on the floor waiting to buy the low, if everyone expects it how is it going to happen?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

TT= http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showforum=2

sahmtrader said...

Atilla, how does one keep their anxiousness in check when waiting for a target when sudden jerks and hard pushes against their position take place? What's the mindset?

illiac64 said...

You know the bottom is reached when the only people willing to buy are those ready to take massive drawdowns.

I dont think this includes most on TT :)

angus said...

a break and hold over the morning's high (1026) might cause massive short covering, till then it should be chop-chop-chop

anabolic said...

time seems to be running out for a crash AND a reversal...?

Ofer said...

is this a good area to re-short?

thedocument said...

angus, I think we're looking at a huge consolidation pattern that will break into the final panic. as long as SPX stays below 1020, I'm still bearish.

anabolic said...

did the channel break on 5 and 15 min?

tamas said...

Wait... so we have not hit the bottom yet!???!!?

anabolic said...

PATIENCE PPL.

remember.

johnboy said...

getting close to make or break moment, by my reading.

A throwover on the triangle pattern - really should drop hard from here if its a triangle...

angus said...

Guys if you're not sure what side to take at the moment, then stay neutral and wait for Atilla's next call.

I for once am not shorting anything today, I missed Atilla's call to short at 1041 yesterday, had my head chopped and handed to me shorting twice today, so I will patiently wait for Atilla's call to get long. If it doesn't happen today, no worries!

angus said...

2000 new lows in NYSE!!! while market is up 100pts+

thedocument said...

You've got nerves of steel, Atilla. I don't see how you watch a trade go 45 ES point profitable and then back to zero without blinking.

dhw said...

Everybody on TT has gone long. Somebody even said that the markets can't physically go lower.

Market looks super strong though, every little dip is being bought.

jeff said...

trust attila you non believers, he is gonna make me a multi multi millionaire

alan b said...

to much optimism for this to be the bottom

anabolic said...

I think markets will crash and then gap up, I really don't see how it can crash and reverse within 2 hours.

dhw said...

Things look too strong. I can't see us crashing today. Maybe tomorrow.

angus said...

There are 3550 stocks in the NYSE and 1999 new lows (56%), how can we crash with so many new lows, then all 3550 stocks would have to register new lows

we had 57% new lows intraday on Monday's crash

angus said...

20EMA and 60EMA both have now turned up, the trends may be turning higher, a break and hold above 1026 may suck me in on the long side, we'll see ...

Tony said...

Attila: Time to update the top post? With regards to target(s) and time frames?

People are getting uneasy, market moving against the short position...

dhw said...

I expect to see atillafader post anytime now.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

this market can not sustain any rally without me,
i must cover and buy before everybody else

until then, all rallies are shortable

angus said...

On the other hand, we're approaching 3pm and the suckers will get uneasy if we don't break 1026, last hour may be interesting

Really Lost said...

LOL. Okay I'll double down here then

Gozen said...

He is probably busy watching the charts. He said he would post when he makes a move. As someone else suggested, if you are uncomfortable with your position, lighten up or sell and wait for Atilla to post his move. You should have your own stops when to exit.

anabolic said...

it is at the very top end of the 15 min channel...

Matthew said...

The man posts and the market falls. Post more often!! :)

Atilla M. Demiray said...

if you think we put a bottom and rallying you will be shocked in a few hours when S&P prints the real bottom a few miles below where we are now.

put your diapers on.

Tony said...

>this market can not sustain any >rally without me,
>i must cover and buy before >everybody else

Admire the confidence! :-)

Seriously though, fingers not itchy at all?

Any revision in time lines/relationships?

You wrote about an end of day rally or a gap up tomorrow. Does covering get triggered by a specific time target (disregarding a price target)?

PCP said...

"this market can not sustain any rally without me,
i must cover and buy before everybody else

until then, all rallies are shortable"


:-) Classic

Who is this guy?

Haus Frau said...

What about the Sell Rosh Hasanah, Buy Yom Kippur stradegy? Are you seeing positions being closed out for people not trading tomorrow

Atilla M. Demiray said...

all plans are subject to change except the plans about my final profits

anabolic said...

Atilla!!!!

OMG i admire and respect your confidence!!!

Eurobear said...

Guys,
The man will post his trade as he does it, he always does, if you are of a mind to trade otherwise then do so.

JReality said...

Do you still think the bottom will happen today? The market is only open for another hour.

(note: if this is a dupe, it's blogger's fault, and I will delete the dups)

ARAK said...

Paulson to Host G7 Press Briefing Today at 3 PM

.... might be the trigger Atilla's prediction come true

sahmtrader said...

Is this it? http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/91647/Another-Big-U.S.-Bank-Failure-Could-Happen-Warns-Roubini?tickers=c,wb,fre,fnm,GS,aig,MS

IC said...

Atilla I don't know if this plays into it but tonight is Yom Kippur, jewish traders will have left by now.

Tony said...

This page must have hit a record in page views today I suspect. :-)

zstock7.com said...

OIH stocks put in the OCT low. If I see any repeats, I'm buying.
Hey how about X?
touched $45, just like my chart said it would and then went to $55. Hope you caught that one. 22% gain in one day___that's what my blog does day in and day out.

zstock7.com said...

QQQQ shorted for an overnight at 33.9. RSI 23 yesterday, is tough to get two up days in a row from such a low RSI reading. Although it does happen, every now and then.

thedocument said...

Sure does get quiet in here when the market is moving against you folks.

angus said...

Frankly, I don't see how they're going to get sold from here and I don't mean only today

The call was for a panic selloff, didn't happen, so oversold conditions should prevail

I think there are better shorting opporutnities further up above at 1060 and 1100, the market needs a breather before it resumes the slide

anabolic said...

there is still possibility. it is still adhering to the 15 min channel. so if it does not break it should go right down.

dhw said...

the fed won't allow the markets to go down anymore.

They will use all 700bill to prop up the markets..

swingtrader said...

strange, if we were to close here, it feels almost exactly like the day before the big plunge took place at 1220 area.

Gozen said...

Put your diapers on.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

lets see if S&P can drop 50 points in 15 minutes... will be the first time for me too

if not, we should open below 970 tomorrow

angus said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
4FL3X said...

Amazing Atilla, Thanks for all the posts :)

Odin said...

Maybe the market does not want to bottom today and jump for joy because of the uncertainty of what might happen tomorrow because shorting financials become possible again tomorrow. Bottom may form tomorrow or probably Friday. Nice end of week rally?!? Just my 2 cents.
Odin

John said...

I think we will gap open higher tommarrow to 1030 , .... then the
selloff atilla speaks of ....
will begin
-JB

Atilla M. Demiray said...

no john, too many suckers are in to gap up tomorrow

we will gap down and sell off into the oblivion tomorrow

just for a change you know what i mean?

mulli said...

all I can say is you are the man

thedocument said...

First, thank you, Atilla, for helping me make moola today. I'm flabbergasted, though, that you were able to hold steadily bearish all day. The pattern printed by the SPX between 2:00 and 3:30 looked mightily constructive for continued bullishness. What in the world did you see to keep you in your trade?

Tony said...

Respect!

Vineet said...

WOW!! Just wow!! what a call on the reversal. I'm glad i was patient and listened you Atilla!!

John said...

All the papers tommarow will have huge head lines 'Coordinated rate Cut' the "suckers" will then think the bottom is in and will buy at open.
Then we crash with them selling in fear.
-JB

Tony said...

Do we set a stop on the ES overnight (just in case)?

Lawrence Chiu said...

From the blog: "Later in the day, I expect a reversal. We will probably reverse to close the day between ES=1050-1070. If it doesnt come before the close, we will gap up and never look back. I think ES will close the week above 1130."

I thought you said if the reversal doesn't come before the close, we'll gap up tomorrow?

anabolic said...

I guess his view changes as he sees the market unfold.

Eurobear said...

Rollercoaster day....sold all my calls through the day using limits so no real pressure. Now all cash as I didn't think there was enough in it for me on the downside to go short now at 990 and unlike others my balls are not even made of steel.

Best of Luck guys.

angus said...

Atilla called for 50pt drop in last 15min, market dropps 62pts

RESPECT!!!

Atilla Victor! Atilla Victor! Atilla Victor!

:::))) great job AGAIN!!!

John said...

Thanks Atilla! for your Advice.
(have not seen how people act in crash before, I myself have felt FEAR several times in the last 2 weeks, I felt rigid...like a robot, or ... zombie)
-JB

Eurobear said...

I did see that GS which has been frontrunning the indexes a bit collapsed into the finish dropping $8 in 30 minutes......that chart with a huge red candle looks like dumping into the close to me

John said...

Hmm, the feel you get at 3:30 when looking at 'spy' chart is entirely different than when looking at the es emini (dec) . Why?

spy = retail traders
emini futures = pros

???
JB