Monday, September 29, 2008

Placed a hard stop at 1156

and closed ETFs from Friday to short more ES... stop 1156 on entire position.
Asia overnight could be interesting.

70 comments by xTrenders :

Greenie said...

I think we made an IT bottom.

Possible?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I dont think so

Atilla M. Demiray said...

it will come from 1000s tomorrow, if they let the market open

Greenie said...

Bear market is not over until SPX gets to 600-700....just an IT bottom.

tamas said...

Do you still think STT, NRTS, & BK will all be in single digets soon?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

just a guess

Greenie said...

This is the chart I have been following for weeks, and NDX finally reached lower line (or is very close to it). Also you see that NDX did not sell much on the second leg today.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_BgtmOc7Z0hE/SN6Eo2XUmVI/AAAAAAAAAaA/KTCU-vPH00Y/s1600-h/Picture+1.jpg

golibaaz said...

atilla, what is your downside target for SPY today?

ARAK said...

Atilla,

With VIX at 46+, do you expect the market to go down the tubes tomorrow? Would the FED announce a rate cut or something to restore some semblance of order? Or, would they let the markets tank to manufacture a crisis to get the bailout bill passed like nazis did with the reichstag burning?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I dont know guys, I am expecting a crash into the close. I am fully short with mentioned stop.

PCP said...

Volume on SPY is not even close to what it was when we first touched 1133 last time (a few days back). Before the IT bottom, we need volume to surpass the last selling climax. We had over 700 million on SPY last time. We are half way there with only an hour to go.

kacey said...

vix will touch 50. Attila, horsemen already bounced from lod.
Are you buying SKF puts tomorrow?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I will not touch anything, I am fully short

50% from 1217
50% from 1150

stop 1156

kacey said...

Atilla, your sp target is 1000s what's your target for UYG? under 13

Vineet said...

Hey Atilla, Just recently started following your blog. Do you have any thoughts on SRS? That sucker has dwindled down to 80s from 100s. Do you see any upside movement?

Trevor said...

Anyone holding SPY puts overnight?

golibaaz said...

i am. Riding it all the way to 1060

kam said...

Atilla, are you holding short overnight? What do you see for tomorrow?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

50 points gap down on ES

we will dump 20-30 more and we will put a bottom

Atilla M. Demiray said...

yes i am holding full short line

Atilla M. Demiray said...

SRS is getting legs now, but you are little late

aymon said...

attila, once we get to your s&p target, will that be THE bottom? how high will the bounce be? if the bounce is to 1200 then it will give me time to layer in my position, otherwise market is too fast.

thanks

Atilla M. Demiray said...

suckers are buying... another big gap down

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I can not believe this... suckers are drooling on CNBC

Folks, be real careful, this thing just warming up, I am on the table screaming at you: WATCH OUT

Please please pleeese , these mother fuckers dont have a clue what is going on

I wish I could express my thoughts in a better way.

sahmtrader said...

You have expressed yourself enough for me to get back into SKF.

What of they surprise with an approval of something overnight? Any concerns over that?

As for CNBC and their cronies, they of course say what the boss tells them to, and the boss gets their instructions where the money comes.

They kept saying what a great time it was to buy real estate, all the way to dump!

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Folks, a few sucker funds were buying banks today, they will capitulate in a few days

this thing is warming up i swear big one is still out there

Atilla M. Demiray said...

i can not imagine hang seng tonight

bubb said...

These conditions are ripe to make suckers impulsive and get killed... annoyed that I covered early today but glad to walk away with a small profit in this volatility.

Look at STT/BK in AH.

sahmtrader said...

And they have no shorts, so it's straight down. We'll see.

Lee said...

lol atilla...great calls as always!

hang seng and sensex should crater tonight...double limit down? 20% anyone?

:D

Atilla M. Demiray said...

huge redemption from hedgies comin... these suckers about to get the lesson of their life .

Atilla M. Demiray said...

C down 6% in AH

looking good

Atilla M. Demiray said...

BAC down 5%

sahmtrader said...

Holding SKF. I hope to see 10-20% tomorrow.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

the baffoon on CNBC used 7 "bottom" words in 1 minute

bubb said...

atilla m. demiray said...
the baffoon on CNBC used 7 "bottom" words in 1 minute

--------------

lol..."unprecedented values", "bargains", and even a comparison to 9/11 just now.

Greenie said...

No bottom. New lows are still expanding in NDX. One thing I forgot about is there will be fewer short covering rallies, because SEC killed all the shorts :)

IC said...

Atilla any opinion on KFN? Must admit I was one of the suckers who bought it today almost at the LOD. Long term buy, willing to average in at this point.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

kfn 4.9-5.1 should be it tomorrow

aymon said...

feel bad for the guy that faded attila

dougs charts said...

vix headed to 64 or,,,,,drumroll
110,,,,,,whewwwwww

sahmtrader said...

There goes AAPL ! Shorted AH at 105.37

Greenie said...

Bottom will be at 945. I figured it out.

How? If Atilla is the greatest trader, NAV at TT board is the greatest sucker ever born. Today he turned into a value investor with a stop of 945 SPX.

Greenie said...

Oops, I meant stop of 950.

aymon said...

attila, you looking to short tol on 10/1 then?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=94762

here goes my favorite sucker... calls bottom.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

we should have 50 points more on the downside right at the open

Atilla M. Demiray said...

aymon said...

attila, you looking to short tol on 10/1 then?

Monday, September 29, 2008 5:33:00 PM EDT

-------------

I am short upto my chin, i cant even breath

answer is no because futures are more profitable on the short side

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I have a strong feeling millions of sword catchers bought todays close.

there was something wrong with the flow

this means we will correct this by gapping down big tomorrow

dougs charts said...

I have a weeklly target on spx down around 1000, not surprised if it gets there tomorrow..along with dji 9609
cheers

Atilla M. Demiray said...

now listen to this. This is hilarious: EPC closed at 0.79, down 0.02

this is clearly seen on traders-talk too. suckers think we are at the bottom, buying calls. I swear something big is about to happen because if this action didnt scare the sheeplie today, imagine what is coming next

sahmtrader said...

Atill, how long have you been trading and, if you don't mind me asking, how many computer monitors do you have as part of your setup? Thank you.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I remember Ron Insona with a full head of hair if that tells you how long I have been into this business.

sahmtrader said...

If Microsoft is now asking the government to move on the bailout, we must have a very serious issue on hand: http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080929/microsoft_financial_crisis.html

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I am usually busy and out of office. I usually use one laptop for most of the things.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

you bet

sahmtrader said...

Thank you!

kacey said...

Atilla, what's your plan for tomorrow? Do you think UYG drop to 13 ? thanks

Atilla M. Demiray said...

We gap down and sell off

golibaaz said...

any targets to cover the shorts?

Carl said...

Atilla, i do not post to much because of my inability to trade like you and most of this friends.As example when you say:SHORT ES AT ....., the only thing i am able to do is short SPY thru my SCOTTRADE account.I have no idea what is ES, but i like to spend a lot of time on this BLOG.The reason:your amazed ability to call the MARKET day after day.I use to go to TT,there i knew you,and i am glad you posted the address of your blog.I no longer go there,because here i get the information that i really need.
Wish you all the success that you deserve

Carl

Atilla M. Demiray said...

My pleasure Carl.
I am glad I can help.

beato99 said...

Hey Atilla,

If you are picking a sell-off and bottom tomorrow, do you think we still finish down - or rally into the close?

johnboy said...

Atilla, your forecasts are amazing. It's hard to understand your abilities as anything other than a special gift - and a lucrative one at that.

On another note, I remember people asking about how they might get more up-to-the-minute updates of your blog entries.

It seems to me that a simple and easy solution would be to create a Google Groups account and post your blog entries there. Google Groups is Google's version of the classic email mailing list, with a few more tricks up it's sleeve:

http://groups.google.com/


Better yet, it seems that you can configure Blogger to automatically post your blog entries to a Google Group.

See here:
http://it.dennyhalim.com/2007/10/blogger-to-mailing-list-gateway.html

Once this is up and running, people can subscribe to the Google Group and receive more or less instantaneous notification of your latest blog posts via email. If people want to get even more tricky, they can then use email-to-sms gateways and such to be notified immediately on their cellphone.

The only other consideration is that I'm not sure whether blog comments will also get posted to the Google Group. But I could be wrong on that. If they don't, you can get around this somewhat by making sure you post your major position/trade updates as blog entries rather than as comments of an existing entry.

Hope this helps.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I have to study little, I dont know yet.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

johnboy ;

I appreciate the suggestion. I will email this to Sol so he can use it in his future bloggings.

sepehrmusic said...

Hi Attila, bravo, been reading your blog for a long time, and today was a masterpiece! Off-topic, just curious what is the origin of your name, are you Turkish?
cheers
Sepehr

johnboy said...

Atilla,

No problem. Glad to be of help.

Your market calls have already helped me greatly, and so if you or Sol like the idea but don't have the time to learn about it and set it up, I'm happy to help you get it up and running.

It's the least I can do in return for your excellent insights.

Cheers

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Turkish.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

thanks johnboy, I will tell Sol , see if he needs help. thanks a lot.