Sunday, September 28, 2008

Heavily short ES from 1214 - 1217 range plus ETF shorts

I am short ES from 1214-1217 range plus ETF shorts and I am done.

I keep a mental stop at 1224 at the moment.

I expect ES to open around 1190 tomorrow

I expect ES to test 1160 tomorrow where I will shift the stop to 1187

I expect ES to take out 1100 this week.

I expect ES to put a bottom around 1035 in the first or second week of October.

Until then, Aloha everyone.


Meanwhile some material for your review:
Bearish
The most intensive selling climax of the decade is about to commence
Will open below 1190

68 comments by xTrenders :

sahmtrader said...

Atilla, thanks once again.

By the way, How is Sol doing?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

He is with his mommy, under intense care ..... He should be back next week.

Dan said...

Rock on bud. Short MER and BAC myself. Several puts. GL. Hope it gaps huge tomorrow as well.

Something was fishy about the premium they offered on that deal. The fail-out is going to take some banks out for sure.

I got that same feeling as well though that you talked about. Your friday's call and the surprising move up subsided it a little though.

dougs charts said...

Atilla
Thank you very much for the quality that you are posting. That type of quality is very hard to come by these days. I am especially impressed in your honesty with the real time thoughts,stops,entrys etc. Most traders are much to afraid to post their trades in real time.
Asian markets turned and dumped. Futures have also dumped and your call is looking pretty dammed good at the moment.
I am now getting concerned that the bigger pattern targets I sent you may come into play, many of which project price 30% lower from here.
Thanks for all you have done here. I hope you can keep it up...

Mike Truong said...

Wow,

I have to say that your call for a decline to 1190 is getting better everyday minutes. What an uncanny ability to read chart. I thought that stuff was voodoo but you seems to prove me wrong. Keep up the good work

ARAK said...

Atilla,

What are you are targets for IWM and MDY?

Thanks

FanOfAtilla said...

Atilla,
Thank you for the excellent work, Kisses.

Eurobear said...

looks like 1190 is v.good call....Delorean out of the shop then...

Atilla M. Demiray said...

You welcome guys/gals... Wachovia is trading below $1 in premarket.

I remember someone told you it last friday

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2008/09/i-have-no-bullish-exposure_26.html

kacey said...

Atilla, do you see a one day bounce around 1100 or a waterfall decline to 1000?
You are amazing.

ARAK said...

Atilla,

What do you think about going short KRE? ETF for KRX regional banking index? Seems to remain strong in premarket

Atilla M. Demiray said...

kacey said...

Atilla, do you see a one day bounce around 1100 or a waterfall decline to 1000?
You are amazing.

Monday, September 29, 2008 9:11:00 AM EDT

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I dont think 1100 will be tested today.

1160 should be tested today

1100 will be this week

Atilla M. Demiray said...

ARAK said...

Atilla,

What do you think about going short KRE? ETF for KRX regional banking index? Seems to remain strong in premarket

Monday, September 29, 2008 9:19:00 AM EDT

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I dont follow KRX but RKH is a short on any bounce

ARAK said...

RKH is weaker than KRE ... KRE is relatively stronger

kacey said...

Atilla, I was thinking 1100 in the next few days. Just covered 2 horsemen bidu goog. Time to listen your U tube music

Atilla M. Demiray said...

You are early... you should listen to me before the video, SPX will test 1160 today

Penn said...

Dude... where do you hide the time machine... Amazing call.

kam said...

Atilla, how do you see the end of day shaping up on SPX -- do you see any kind of bounce? It's already at 1168.

bubb said...

Bravo on the nimble call...noticed STT, fell over 30% like a stone this morning before clawing some back here...

Atilla M. Demiray said...

bubb said...

Bravo on the nimble call...noticed STT, fell over 30% like a stone this morning before clawing some back here...

Monday, September 29, 2008 10:29:00 AM EDT

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It is just warming up

Atilla M. Demiray said...

kam said...

Atilla, how do you see the end of day shaping up on SPX -- do you see any kind of bounce? It's already at 1168.

Monday, September 29, 2008 10:23:00 AM EDT

----------------

We test 1160 and bounce to 1178 -1182

kam said...

and tomorrow?

sweetholly said...

I don't believe Atilla is a human.

golibaaz said...

atilla, do you plan to go long around 1160 to catch the end of day bounce?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

No, I will shift my stop to 1187 when we test 1160

I will likely start scaling out at 1050 down to 1020

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Folks, state street and bank of new york getting raped

IC said...

How far do you see oil dropping? Still bearish on gold?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Gold will drop too... In a crash everything falls.

Dollar will fall with gold. That is what happened in the crash of 1987

S&P didnt start falling yet, once selling climax begins, it will take everything with it, from oil, to gold to dollar to pork bellies to butter

aymon said...

attila, will there be a bounce at all today or tomorrow for us to re-enter shorts?

thanks
aymon

tamas said...

Atilla, maybe you can help me:

I bought some OCT puts on WB friday and now trading WB is halted. Do you know if trading will resume so I can take profits on my puts?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

WB will be unlisted, there is no WB anymore.

You made great money on those puts.

kacey said...

atilla, yes i was early, nervous of intraday bounce. STT and BK puts look tempting

anabolic said...

Hi Atilla you seem to be becoming the greatest trader of this time.

I have only seen ONE wrong call from you!!

My question: will you be Re-entering shorts today around 1178-1182 area, as judging by your prediction we still have long way down to go?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

aymon said...

attila, will there be a bounce at all today or tomorrow for us to re-enter shorts?

thanks
aymon

Monday, September 29, 2008 11:25:00 AM EDT

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if SPY tests 117.9, short there
otherwise it is risky to jump in here

We may drop 100 points in an hour or we may bounce

Atilla M. Demiray said...

anabolic said...

Hi Atilla you seem to be becoming the greatest trader of this time.

I have only seen ONE wrong call from you!!

My question: will you be Re-entering shorts today around 1178-1182 area, as judging by your prediction we still have long way down to go?

Monday, September 29, 2008 11:34:00 AM EDT

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I have to see how it goes.

kam said...

Atilla, gold may ratchet up on safe haven buying, as the currency of last resort. Notice that it's up today, though all other commodities are down. Gold stocks will probably go down with the market ... just my 2 cents.

hadman said...

amazing.

tamas said...

atilla m. demiray said...
WB will be unlisted, there is no WB anymore.

You made great money on those puts.


--------------------

I tried closing the puts but my order won't go through. I should probably call my broker.

Eurobear said...

Your puts will go full strike. There is no market at the moment so you can't sell. Broker will confirm...nice work

Atilla M. Demiray said...

There is going to be a snap back to 117.9 comin

its shortable imo

we will close at the worst level

Atilla M. Demiray said...

that is SPY 117.9

Shawn said...

Thanks Atilla. Your predictions are GODLY!

gler said...

Atilla, the bill is going to be voted on at 1pm. Are you sure it's outcome is all baked in (what IS your opinion on the outcome any way)? Your predictions seem to completely over look the bill.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Yeah I think suckers will buy on the bill pass followed by another selling wave

I think we will break below 1160 on ES today

Otherwise we should do it tomorrow morning

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I cant believe the spread on STT puts

the sucker goingunder big time

writers must be scared shitless

M. said...

Atilla, Why are TOL and other homebuilders so strong? If there is a plunge, they should fall before anything else.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

they been falling for three years... let the S&P fall at least one year

I have a chart of TOL that will drive you crazy

it is the biggest proof that this market will roll over through rotation from here

just look at the forums, people either trapped or out of the market
this is the big one big fucking time

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Can you feel it? everybody waiting for it to rally to short?

bubb said...

Lol, nice characterization :)

importer said...

RF is getting killed. Is this going down

aymon said...

attila, when's tol going to fall and how far down?

Greenie said...

NAV says, it is darkest before dawn...he must be talking about his trading account :)

How is your bullish buddy doing?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

My setup is quarterly, so it should start cratering as early as Oct 1 which is the beginning of the new Q

It should plunge minimum 40% in a few weeks

Atilla M. Demiray said...

My bullish buddy? DC? I dropped him a few lines on his blog, didnt you see it?

aymon said...

attila, are you talking about tol falling 40% in a few weeks?

thanks

Atilla M. Demiray said...

yes TOL

sahmtrader said...

can't find share to short TOL. Any option suggestions? Thanks.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

dont short now then. lol

Read what I said.

October 1 or 2

aymon said...

lebed is all over tol dec 20 puts

i'm going to get the jan 20 puts just to be safe

aymon said...

attila, what an awesome s&p Monday opening call last Friday.

can't believe you called for a -2.0% opening

sahmtrader said...

Sounds good, Atilla. Thanks.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

here comes the sucker rally....

watch SPY 117.9

sahmtrader said...

In SKF since 101. Have a sell at 187 but that may be too optimistic. 140's more likely.

Atilla?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

covered 50% at 1120

anabolic said...

WOW.

sahmtrader said...

Covered all SKF for now.

anabolic said...

that was really one HUGE flush of weak hands.

Eurobear said...

weak hands or wise heads....a 750 drop ...