Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Gold

Gold is likely headed to 650-700 over intermediate term but if the bill passes, I expect USD to crash so that may destroy the trends and patterns on Gold.

Meanwhile, commercials increased their short position on Gold last week.


GLD 5y weelky testing mid channel


GC continuous contract weekly


GC continuous contract monthly, showing intermediate term target between 650-700


GC adjusted contract weekly


GC adjusted contract monthly

23 comments by xTrenders :

Isaac said...

wow, i can't wait for it to be 700 so I could load up. That would be the price of our lifetime. Doubt we see it but maybe.

Lee said...

Atilla, I have been a silent reader of xtrends for a few weeks now and have to say its just amazing...the analysis and the chart work here are probably the best I have seen...Keep up the good work...Learning a lot from you and Sol...

I had a question for you - I note you are LT bullish on China...After a climax selloff..Do you see something similar for India? Are you bullish LT?
Thoughts?

Best Regards,
Lee

Odin said...

hello Atilla, What stocks and market sectors lead the SP500 these days?
Thanks.
Odin

Anonymous said...

If the bill passes, gold and S&P spikes. If the bill does not pass, gold and S&P both tank. So I cannot see how your prediction re gold going lower and S&P going higher can be correct at the same time.

Greenie said...

Gold 650???????

I have to bookmark this thread for posterity :) :) :)

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Lee said...

Atilla, I have been a silent reader of xtrends for a few weeks now and have to say its just amazing...the analysis and the chart work here are probably the best I have seen...Keep up the good work...Learning a lot from you and Sol...

I had a question for you - I note you are LT bullish on China...After a climax selloff..Do you see something similar for India? Are you bullish LT?
Thoughts?

Best Regards,
Lee

Wednesday, September 24, 2008 1:51:00 AM EDT

------------------------

I think India is a little different story.

7 percent-plus annual increases in GDP and sizeable per capita income increases of recent years have not translated into any improvement in the socio-economic well-being of the vast majority of Indians. This is somewhat different in China.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Odin said...

hello Atilla, What stocks and market sectors lead the SP500 these days?
Thanks.
Odin

Wednesday, September 24, 2008 1:56:00 AM EDT

--------------------

Banks, airlines and home builders, who have been the leading sectors of this bear market have been leading the market on the upside. That is one of the most significant differences this recent sell off has compared to the past cyclical moves.

Isaac said...

If your long term chart on NDX gets broken before the end of the day today, you still think we going up. Or are you going short again. I think we have a chance of that happening.

Susannah said...

I'll be looking to buy the dip in gold if it happens. I think the dollar is doomed either way, bill or no bill. The bill just changes the timeframe. Also, I'm beginning to think a crash is the form it's going to take. This is a hedge, though. I won't be leveraging.

Anonymous said...

Presently GLD and SLV have no shares to short.

Any suggestions on how to play this expected down move?

importer said...

Fidelity has no spy,qqqq or iwm to short

Farley said...

Presently GLD and SLV have no shares to short.

Any suggestions on how to play this expected down move?

One of the etfs? DZZ if ya got the balls

Farley said...

I expect the bill to be passed, one way or another, and gold to run up. So short gold here at your own risk.

sahmtrader said...

When the stock market goes up, typically gold comes down!

Joul said...

I suggest those who are experiencing "no shares" to short from their current brokerage firm to swap to TOS (thinkorswim) immediately. TOS works perfect even during last week major event. As for QQQQ,QLD,GLD,GDX,ABX,SLV etc you still can short them using PUT options.

sahmtrader said...

Interactive Brokers just let me short GLD

sahmtrader said...

Atilla, would you kindly share an exit price for GLD short from here? Thanks.

Isaac said...

Be very careful with the gold short. We are about to go parabolic on gold.

Farley said...

Be very careful with the gold short. We are about to go parabolic on gold.

I agree! When they pass this bill, the dollar will get crushed.

golibaaz said...

atilla, sol,
do you continue to be bullish here or is there any change in view based on today's action?
thanks for your views.

IC said...

Huge slosh drain today, markets have a hard time rising with that. I am actually encouraged that we did not fall through the floor. Tomorrow will be another day for the market to teach us. Good luck Sol and Atilla; still holding long, nervous as can be.

UnderABigW said...

Atilla,

Thanks for posting such great charts on gold.

UBW

PCap said...

Why don't you guys strangle gold since you are either super bullish on it or super bearish?

Only position here is long Yen/short USD