Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Fed pattern again?

I usually don't trade after Fed decisions so I was out this afternoon.

Atilla has more inside on this however as far as I remember, the day followed by a Fed day tends to be a reversal day.

Also the market was broken, there can not be any upside over the ST. The way today looks on the chats, tells me Fed move was a fake. We should gap down below TL tomorrow.

My only position is SKF from 124.5 That was the breakout test I showed earlier. I believe SKF will open above 125 tomorrow.

4 comments by xTrenders :

WagTheDog said...

Something is very much amiss and the market is certainly broken:

New 52 week lows shellacked those stocks making new 52 week highs today. And this was accomplished despite the S&P small-caps turning in the best performance of the day.

Also, from today's Treasury International Capital Report (TIC): "Monthly net TIC flows were negative $74.8 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were negative $92.9 billion, and net foreign official flows were $18.2 billion." It is clear that foreigners are withdrawing their dollar positions - although I must admit I don't know how to rationalize this with US Dollar index being up 50 cents today... Regardless, IMHO I view this as a disaster of a TIC report and something is going to have to give way very soon.

IC said...

Want to reconsider that statement in view of AIG? All indicators right now say it will be a huge up morning. Short into it, or wait for the wave to pass, so all the retail will rush in and buy?

admin said...

It is little early to say anything. Lets see how it opens. I have only one position to worry about. I think I can make money on it tomorrow.

IC said...

Sol, I am really curious, if you have the time, what you were watching that made you abandon your original plan this morning (the exact correct plan as it turns out)and start chasing the short side.