Sunday, September 28, 2008

Closed remaining ES long between 1215-1220

I sold remaining 50% ES long beween 1215-1220 and this leaves me with SPY shorts and ultrashort ETFs which I had opened on Friday in AH.

I will be shorting ESZ8 and SPZ8 on any strength overnight with a stop around 1230.

I gave my reasons early this weekend, they are not as important as the intermediate term technicals I talked about during the last few weeks.

I expect S&P500 to take out 1100 this week and I expect a tradable bottom (intermediate term) around 1035. This was the number I refined as a target in October 2007, as some of you will remember. I believe the target will be achieved before Mid-October, 2008.

These are my current thoughts which I am executing my trades based on. They are all subject to change according to new technical / fundamental developments.

Until Sol is back, I am outta here. Good luck everyone.

20 comments by xTrenders :

g3 said...

Thanks atilla!

I also turned net short towards the close on fridays after selling into the rally.

Continued success to you & Sol!

Scamper said...

Really appreciate your thoughts and while I do not have an S&P target for the end of the week, I do concur the current bullish movement is a good fade.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Well I said this to one of my online bull friend but let me say it here too.

It will be the biggest weekly plunge you have ever seen since the beginning of this bear market.

It will literally retard the people who posses a straight Aristo logic.

I sincerely wish a lot of luck to those who got bulled up on this fail-out. We are entering in a terminal move that will wipe out alot of hedge funds.

In the land of whales, when it rains, it pours.

aymon said...

attila, what would you recommend buying? which puts?

aymon

ARAK said...

Atilla,

You closed /ES longs, but went short via SPY and ETFs? Which market is trading that allows you to do it?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

IWM and MDY

IC said...

So far the bill has been essentially guaranteed to pass and the futures are tanking. Great job Atilla!!!

ARAK said...

IWM and MDY front months or say Dec? Given the weekly decline you expect, I think you'd say front months

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Atilla,

You closed /ES longs, but went short via SPY and ETFs? Which market is trading that allows you to do it?

Sunday, September 28, 2008 10:06:00 PM EDT

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I had shorted SPY and bought ultra short ETFs friday after the close

I had posted here, you should look archives before asking

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2008/09/i-have-no-bullish-exposure_26.html


I dumped my remaining ES longs tonight, and currently short ES from 1216-17 level

Atilla M. Demiray said...

ARAK said...

IWM and MDY front months or say Dec? Given the weekly decline you expect, I think you'd say front months

Sunday, September 28, 2008 10:08:00 PM EDT
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I dont know, we will gap down huge today, I can not tell you to buy puts at the open, it is risky but If I was to buy puts, they would be october IWM and MDY

IC said...

I simply can not imagine the PPT allowing the market to crash tomorrow; it would throw the whole bill under the bus. If you are right Atilla this is the greatest call ever.

ARAK said...

I knew you bought SKF, but missed the part about shorting SPY. Sorry.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

My best guess is, we will open below 1190 on ESZ

ARAK said...

Deep in the money puts might not have such high IV and would be the better way to play if you don't have access to futures

Atilla M. Demiray said...

another guess:

WB may converge to zero tomorrow

ARAK said...

Atilla,

Why MDY and IWM? IWM removed commodity stocks and replaced them with financial stocks which has thrown all TA out of the window. Do you believe that these two have the most meat left on their bones and are also ripe for larger fall percentage wise than /ES?

Atilla M. Demiray said...

I have to tell you next week will be the busiest one for FDIC. That is why.

Haus Frau said...

While I must admit I wondered about the shift, since I do see the Bailout as inconsistent with a drop. However I did catch this from TF, which is a summary of the Treasury conference call http://dealbreaker.com/2008/09/live-blogging-the-treasury-cal.php#more The key is that this money will not be dispatched for a few weeks, they realize some will fail in the interim

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Fed is broke.

First half of that money will be released with delays and so slowly.
They are collecting from other governments.

The other 50% of that money will never be released.

Atilla M. Demiray said...

Yes meanwhile 100s of banks will disappear. Like I said this week will be a very busy one for FDIC.