We have been in an intermediate term uptrend since Feb 2016 low, this uptrend was briefly interrupted by Brexit event which we used to cover all our short positions that we had opened at much higher prices. Our exit was ES 1983 which turned out to be the absolute bottom.
Since then we have been trading short term moves but we think this whole intermediate term move is coming to an end.
Since early 2014, major US indices have been forming long term tops. Their long term momentum already turned , price will follow like night follows day. There are many sectors and sub-sectors that are already in bear market. It is only a few large cap names camouflaging the underlying broad weakness.
Dow Jones Ind. Monthly backtesting the megaphone top
Transportation Index Monthly broke inside the long term channel
Transportation Index weekly
Investment Banks, Brokers and Dealers weekly, backtesting the broken bull market channel
Russell 2K small cap Index weekly backtesting the broken bull market channel
Financials weekly backtesting the midline, headed to the channel support
Value Line Geo monthly sowing the real picture
Value Line Geo weekly
And many European and Asian markets are already in bear market
Europe 600 weekly
It is still early to call for a large intermediate term sell off but we are in a swing down move that may last for a few days. After this short term move, we may see marginal new highs on SPX but that's the best case scenario. The next intermediate term sell off will be worse than anything you have seen since March 2009 because weekly and monthly charts suggest that the next down cycle will be enormous and very powerful especially for those markets and indices that are broken (C wave).